General: As the rollercoaster year of 2009 comes to an end, a somewhat apprehensive outlook emerges for 2010. Sure enough, the deep slump that started at the end of 2007 has been reversed. The economy started growing again as of Q3 2009 and there are encouraging signs in the housing industry. It is at least growing again, though it is still far below the levels of recent years. Most worryingly, debt kept piling up throughout the year and over a trillion dollars of additional expenses (healthcare, new stimulus packages) are looming in 2010. The federal debt level has reached almost 13% of GDP, formerly an unimaginably lofty plateau. Unemployment remains in double-digit figures and an entirely possible resurgent inflation adds more concerns yet. The wholesale inflation rate went up an unexpectedly high +1.8% in November. Still, as the year closes the country is in a self-congratulatory mode for having averted a cataclysmic crisis ... at least, for now.
GDP: +2.8% in Q3 2009 from Q2 or -0.7 percentage points less than the advance number. Compared to Q3 2008, GDP shrank -2.5%.
Consumer Prices: +1.8% in November (+1.1% from a year ago)
Consumer Confidence: 49.5 in November, up from 48.7 in October
Industrial Production: -5.1% in November from a year ago; +0.8% compared to October
Producer Prices: +1.4% in November from a year ago; +1.8% compared to October
Unemployment: 10.0% in November
Trade Deficit: -$32.94 billion in October, down from -$35.7 billion in September; $523.9 bn for the past 12 months
Currency: 0.69 Euro to US$1 as of December 16 (0.70 a year ago)
Housing: Housing starts in November increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000 units. This is +8.9% higher than the October rate and -12.4% below last year. Housing permits rose +6.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 584,000 units. This is -7.3% below November 2008. Existing home sales in October surged +10.1% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units. This is +23.5% above October 2008. The national median existing-home price for all types was $173,100, down -7.1% from a year ago. Total housing inventory at the end of October fell to 3.57 million units, representing a 7.0-month supply at the current sales rate. The unsold inventory is -14.9% below last year.
Automotive Industry: 594,050 units were produced in November or +12.2% more than last year. In the first eleven months of the year 5,166,392 units were produced or -36.9% less than last year. In November 746,928 units of light vehicles were sold. This is statistically even with last year. In the first eleven months of 2009 the decline of total sales was -23.9% compared to last year.
Steel Production: 5.92 million metric tons in October or -12.4% less than last year. In the first ten months of the year 46.55 million metric tons were produced or -43.7% less than last year.
Purchasing Managers' Index: According to the Institute for Supply Management, the PMI fell to 53.6 in November from 55.7 in October. But it is still the fourth consecutive month of growth, albeit at a slower pace.
Other data in that report were as follows:
New Orders: 60.3 (58.5 October) - trend is "growing" for the fifth straight month
Production: 59.9 (63.3) - "growing" for the sixth consecutive month but at slower pace
Inventories: 41.3 (46.9) - "contracting" for the 43rd consecutive month
Customers' Inventories: 37.0 (38.5) - "too low"
Manufacturing Sector: "growing" for the fourth straight month
Overall Economy: "growing" for the seventh straight month