South American economic overview - July 18, 2007

Thursday, 19 July 2007 14:09:57 (GMT+3)   |  

Argentina:

GDP: + 8.0% in Q1

Consumer Prices: + 8.8% in the past twelve months to June

Industrial Production: + 4.0% in May

Unemployment: 9.7% in Q1

Trade Balance: + $11.3 billion for the latest twelve months to May

Steel Production: 446,000 mt in June, or 9.0% less than last year. In the first six months, 2.592 million mt were produced, or 8.3% less than last year.

Currency: Peso 3.10 to US$1 as of July 11 (one year ago: Peso 3.08 to US$1)

Special Focus: An unusually severe winter surprised many Argentineans and their government. Energy shortages crept up, leaving some companies and residents in rural areas without power. Argentina has for now suspended all natural gas shipments to Chile. Normally, Chile gets all its natural gas supplies from Argentina. Finally, the government has not settled its $6.0 billion debt with the Paris Club. Despite the continuing favorable economic conditions, no agreement could be reached because of Argentina's unyielding refusal to have the International Monetary Fund (IMF) involved.

Brazil:

GDP: + 4.3% in Q1. The Central Bank's forecast for the year does not exceed a disappointing 4.7%. However, Congress approved budget guidelines for 2008 giving the government more flexibility. It is expected that the growth rate next year will exceed 5.0%.

Consumer Prices: +3.7% in the last twelve months to June

Industrial Production: + 4.9% in May

Unemployment: 10.1% in May

Trade Balance: + $47.4 billion for the latest twelve months to June

Steel Production: 2.733 million mt were produced in June, an increase of 14.8% over last year. In the first six months, 16.327 million mt were produced, 12.8% ahead of last year's pace.

Currency: Real 1.89 to US$1 as of July 11 (last year: Real 2.19 to US$1)

Chile:

GDP: + 5.8% in Q1

Consumer Prices: + 3.2% in June in annual terms. In the month of June, the increase was 0.9%. This higher-than-expected up-tick was driven by surging food and energy prices. Some experts believe inflation could go through the 4.0% barrier by the end of the year. Though it is still a very modest number, the Central Bank took action and raised the overnight benchmark interest rate to 5.25% from the previous 5.0%.

Industrial Production: + 3.0% in May

Unemployment: 6.7% in May

Trade Balance: + $25.5 billion for the latest twelve months to June

Copper Price: US$3,160 /mt as of July 18 for a three-month delivery

Currency: Peso 518 to US$1 as of July 11 (last year: Peso 540 to US$1)

Venezuela

GDP: + 8.8% in Q1

Consumer Prices: +19.4% in the past twelve month to June. In that month alone, the increase was a shocking 1.8%. Experts cite many reasons, but the main culprit is the federal government and its unchecked public spending. In Q1, the government ran a budget deficit of Bolivar 1.8 billion.

Industrial Production: + 6.7% in March

Unemployment: 8.3% in June, down from 9.7% last year. President Chavez' edict to increase hiring at all government ministries and at the state owned oil company, PDVSA, is showing its effect.

Trade Balance: + $28.2 billion in Q1 for the latest 12 months. Figures for 2006 show that exports of non-petroleum products fell 26.4% last year whereas imports rose 39.9%. The US received 26.4% of all Venezuelan exports (down from 30.0% in 2005), and 31.2% of all imports came from the US (31.5% in 2005). Venezuela's second-largest trading partner, Colombia, does not even come close to these numbers.

Steel Production: 415,000 (e) mt were produced in June, an increase of 9.2% over last year. In the first six months, 2.535 million mt were produced, 2.9% ahead of last year's pace.

Currency: Bolivar 2,147 to 1 US$ as of July 11 (last year 2,646). There are currency restrictions in place. The unofficial value of the US dollar is rumored to be around Bolivar 4,000.

Oil/Gas Industry: As the US-based oil companies Conoco/Philips and Exxon/Mobile are leaving Venezuela since their assets were seized by the government, China's second largest oil producer, Petrochemical Corp., has announced its intention to start drilling in Venezuela. There are strong indications that all natural gas fields will be nationalized by the end of the year. With 150 trillion cubic feet of reserves, Venezuela is the largest natural gas producer on the continent.

Colombia / Peru:

GDP: in Colombia grew 8.1% in Q1, and Peru saw an impressive growth of 8.33% in May (compared to last year). However, consumer prices in Peru increased 0.62% in June - the highest monthly jump since January 2004. Consumer prices in Colombia grew a moderate 3.9% in the twelve months to June.


Similar articles

Latin American economic overview – October 17, 2007

17 Oct | Steel Matters

Brazil’s auto production increases by 10.6 percent in May

12 Jun | Steel News

US rig count decreases, Canada increases - week 24, 2026

12 Jun | Steel News

Mexican domestic scrap market could enter a downturn, prices remain stable in the meantime

12 Jun | Scrap & Raw Materials

Brazilian heavy plate exports collapse by 97 percent in May

12 Jun | Steel News

US import long steel prices steady in light trade amid new Iran actions

12 Jun | Longs and Billet

Upward expectations strengthen in local EU HRC market, interest in imports almost zero

12 Jun | Flats and Slab

Global View on Scrap: Prices in Turkey plunge in new ex-EU deals, Asian demand still slack

12 Jun | Scrap & Raw Materials

Turkey’s import scrap market plunges in new deals from EU

12 Jun | Scrap & Raw Materials

Ex-Brazil BPI stays firm in latest deals to US and EU

12 Jun | Scrap & Raw Materials