Record breaking output in stainless for 2002
Stainless steel will set a record output in 2002, analysts indicate with global
production of cold rolled
stainless strip expected to reach the 10 million ton mark for the first time. Analysts and steel executives say that despite record output this year that last year was very difficult for
stainless. The reason for difficulties in 2001 insiders commented was that the U.S. had huge stock liquidation that reduced demand so prices plunged. Yet, experts are surprised that current
stainless steel prices in the U.S. are lower than in the EU for the first time in 10 years.
The International
Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF) statistics indicate that the Asian market has been down for awhile but that prices are starting to pick up there with room for more price hikes as well. The view of most is that, what turn prices take depends to a great extent on
China since small producers have entered the market. Sources report they can supply 350,000-400,000 tons per year – the result would be a drop in prices.
Currently, the
stainless market in the EU shows prices began rising in March by €100 per ton which was the effect of higher end-user demand and lots of bookings. Analysts are uncertain as to how prices will move on
stainless in 2002 at this point.
Steel insiders report that they are hoping to see a demand in growth return to its normal level of 5% per year in the second quarter of 2002.
Meanwhile,
stainless steel imports in January 2002, increased by 9% compared to January 2001 while import penetration rose to 27% - a total of two percentage points. Imports for
stainless steel product lines including
stainless sheet/strip,
plate, bar, rod and
wire saw increases for each product in January 2002 compared to last year in January. No change in U.S.
stainless consumption was reflected for January.
A major objective in the steel industry on the whole, insiders reveal is to be able to predict future down cycles. The ISSF has plans to assist the
stainless industry by designing an early warning system that would effectively assist in advance of such a cycle.