Latin American economic overview - December 6, 2006
Argentina GDP: + 7.9% in Q2 (compared to Q2 2005) Industrial Production: +7.3% in Oct. (compared to October 2005) Consumer Prices: + 10.5% in October (compared to October 2005) Unemployment: 10.2% in Q3 (10% in Q2; 9.3% in Q3 2005) Trade Balance: $11.5 billion at end of Oct. (for the past twelve months) Current Account: + $7.4 billion in Q2 (latest twelve months) Currency: Peso 3.08 to US$1 as of Nov. 29 (Peso 2.97 to US$1 a year ago) Steel Production: 484,000 mt in October (481,000 mt in September 2006 and 447,000 mt in October 2005; 4.732 million mt in the first ten months of 2006, 6.3% ahead of last year) Brazil: GDP: + 3.2% in Q3 (compared to Q3 2005, + 2% from Q2). Because of the continued sluggish growth, the Central Bank of Brazil cut the benchmark interest rate to 13.25%, the lowest level in 20 years. The expected GDP growth for the year is an unsatisfactory 2.94% . Industrial Production: + 1.3% in Sep. (compared to September 2005) Consumer Prices: + 3.3% in Oct. (compared to October 2005). Expected rate for the year is a very modest 3.15%. Unemployment: 9.8% in Oct. (10% in September, 9.6% in October 2005) Budget Surplus: The primary surplus (before interest payments) widened to Real 10.5 (US$3.82) billion in October compared to Real 4.6 (US$2.11) billion in September. Trade Balance: + $46.5 billion at end of October (for the past twelve months) Current Account: + $14.0 billion at end of Oct. (for the past twelve months) Currency: Real 2.18 to US$1 as of Nov. 29 (Real 2.20 to US$1 a year ago) Steel Production: 2.787 million mt in October (2.757 million mt in September and 2.676 million mt in October 2005; 25.559 million mt first ten months of 2006, 2.9% less than last year) Chile: GDP: Yearly growth is expected to come in at around 4.5% (6.3% last year). Because of the slow growth, a cut in the benchmark interest rate (currently 5.25%) is expected for early 2007. Industrial Production: + 4.7% in Oct. (compared to October 2005) Consumer Prices: + 2.1% at end of Oct. (compared to October 2005) Trade Balance: +$21.2 billion at end of Oct. (for the past twelve months) Current Account: + $2.2 billion in Q2 (for the past twelve months) Currency: Peso 530 to US$1 as of Nov. 29 (Peso 515 to US$1 a year ago) Copper Production: 490,348 mt in Oct., up 7.4% over October 2005. Production for the first 10 months of the year was 4.4 million mt, up 1.3% from last year Copper Price: $3.1439 per lb as of Dec. 4 Steel Production: 140,000 (e) mt in October (135,000 mt in September and 90,000 mt in October 2005; 1.273 million mt in the first ten months 2006, 6.1% ahead of last year) Venezuela: GDP: + 10.2% in Q3 (compared to Q3 2005) Industrial Production: +12.7% in Aug (compared to August 2005) Consumer Prices: + 15.8% annual rate through November. Pushed by an undiminished consumer demand, the Venezuelan industry is running on full capacity. But companies are skeptical as to how long this surge will last and have not invested in expanding their output capacities. Unemployment: 8.9% in Oct. Trade Balance: + $36.8 billion Q3 (for the past twelve months) Current Account: + $29.7 billion in Q3 (for the past twelve months) Currency: Bolivar 3,455 to US$1 on Nov. 29 (Bolivar 2,463 to US$1 a year ago) Steel Production: 455,000 (e) mt in October (440,000 mt in September and 454,000 mt in October 2005; first ten months 2006: 4.246 mt, 4.5% ahead of last year's pace)