Analysts: Turkey unaffected by global storms

Analysts: Turkey unaffected by global storms

On the domestic front, financial experts are maintaining a positive stance on disinflation for April and the following months. They have pronounced Turkey to be in a “virtuous cycle” meaning in short, that tight monetary and fiscal policy are in place to curb inflation. Analysts forecast if indicators continue to follow this trend, the TL will remain stable, inflation will decrease further which will, experts say, result in the Central Bank cutting short term rates further. Experts do predict though, that this positive outlook will be interrupted when demand starts rising. On the global front, analysts predict no negative impact on Turkey from Iraq's declaration to halt crude oil for a month since Saudia Arabia, Venezuela and Russia can easily pick up the slack. Experts further explain that if Iraq were to declare an oil embargo on Turkey, it would have little effect on the state refinery, Tüpraş since they halted direct imports from Iraq in November 2000. Tüpraş general manager, Husamettin Danış told analysts that Turkey imports crude oil from many other countries and that since Tüpraş hasn't imported crude from Iraq in two years, there is nothing to worry about. Experts report that crude oil from Iraq still flows into the pipeline through Ceyhan, but that any cut in that flow would not effect Turkey in any significant manner. The reason is, an oil analyst remarked, that the main suppliers of crude to Turkey include Russia, Libya, Egypt and Iran. Since Iran has declared to the media that it will not participate in an oil embargo, the Turkish position remains stable.