Brazilian iron ore miner Vale is positioning itself to meet rising iron ore demand from India, where steel production is expected to double to 300 million mt by the end of the decade. CEO Gustavo Pimenta told Reuters during an interview that India’s rapidly expanding infrastructure needs, driven by a population of 1.6 billion, will accelerate steel consumption far beyond China’s pace.
China’s steel output has stabilized at around 1 billion mt, and, while it remains Vale’s largest customer representing 60 percent of its total sales, Pimenta expects its demand to soften slightly. This shift reinforces Vale’s strategy to diversify supply into India and other high-growth Asian markets.
Sharp increase in iron ore exports to India and Vietnam
Vale expects India to import 10 million mt of its iron ore in 2025, compared to almost none just a few years earlier. While still far from China’s volumes, India’s 12 percent annual growth rate makes it one of the most dynamic steel markets globally.
Beyond India, Vale anticipates exporting 8 million mt to Vietnam next year, reflecting its growing appetite for high-grade ore to support manufacturing expansion.
Major investment wave in Northern System
Although Vale has not released new production targets, Pimenta confirmed that the company will soon detail expansion plans for its Northern System.
As part of the BRL 70 billion ($13.22 billion) Novo Carajás investment program running through 2030, Vale is developing a project that will add 20 million mt of iron ore capacity. The project is 80 percent complete and expected to start operating by late 2026.
With its expansion strategy and strong Asian demand outlook, Vale expects to regain its position as the world’s largest iron ore producer this year, surpassing Australia-based miner Rio Tinto for the first time since the 2019 Brumadinho disaster.
