Russia's Ministry of Economic Development (MED) expects the country's steel products consumption in 2010 to increase by 26.4 percent year on year to 33.2 million mt; however, it noted that the pre-crisis level from 2008 (i.e. 36.3 million mt) will not be reached.
Following the 14.7 percent decrease in 2009, the ministry's growth forecast for the country's steel industry in 2010 is 15.2 percent, while by 2013 growth will reach 30.9 percent compared to 2009. Meanwhile, in 2010, the output of rolled steel products may increase by 12.1 percent and output of steel pipes may rise by 23.3 percent (in 2009 these products saw 10.3 percent and 14.4 percent year-on-year decreases respectively). By 2013, Russia's rolled steel products output may increase by 26.3 percent and output of steel pipes may rise by 41.6 percent, both compared to 2009.
According to Russia's MED, in 2011 the increase in steel prices will be very modest due to forecasted price movements on world markets and low growth in domestic demand. However, the growth of external and domestic demand for steel products in oligopolistic market conditions, and the low competitive environment may lead to a surge in prices for some types of products.
In 2009, Russia's rolled steel products deliveries to export markets increased by 2.8 percent year on year. Due to the sufficiency of steel products in the world market, the MED said that prior to 2013 it does not expect a significant growth in Russian rolled steel products exports, and that in the medium term export deliveries may remain at the level of 2010.
According to preliminary estimates, in 2010 Russia's imports of rolled steel products may reach five million mt, or 14.9 percent of domestic consumption.