According to the Japanese Ministry of Trade (METI), Japan’s crude steel output is forecast to rise 2.3 percent year-on-year to 26.54 million mt over July-September from 25.94 million mt last year, remaining largely stable from the recent April-June quarter of 26.33 million mt. Crude steel output production over July-September 2018 is expected to be slightly higher than the 26.33 million mt in the same period in 2016 and the 26.20 million mt in 2015, but lower than the 27.89 million mt in 2014.
Demand for finished steel is forecast to edge up 0.7 percent over the same period to 23.75 million mt and rise 2.8 percent from April-June. Additionally, demand for ordinary carbon steel from the construction sector is forecast to be steady on year at 5.44 million mt and rise 6.8 percent from the previous quarter. From the manufacturing sector it is anticipated to rise 1.5 percent on year to 7.04 million mt and tick up 0.8 percent from April-June.
METI reported that recent demand from private and public civil engineering projects has been stable while firm from non-housing such as urban redevelopment and 2020 Tokyo Olympics-related projects. Demand from the housing sector has been reportedly trending soft. In the manufacturing segment, demand for shipbuilding was seen likely to remain low in the current quarter, demand for machinery was likely to remain firm and likely to rise for auto making.
METI forecast exports are expected to rise 2.7 percent on year and by 1.1 percent from the previous quarter to 7.85 million mt in the July-September quarter, noting that exports in the July-September 2017 quarter had been impacted by facility disruptions.