On Tuesday, October 7, the SteelOrbis Market Talks meeting held at the Anemon Hotel Iskenderun with over 400 participants and sponsored by Turkish steel producer Atakaş Çelik and attended by Atakaş Çelik Deputy Chairman of the Board Mustafa Naim Atakaş discussed the current state and future expectations of the Turkish steel industry in detail. Other sponsors of the meeting were Yatırım Finansman, Arslan Group and Asya Taşımacılık.
Sectoral assessment by Atakaş Çelik
After the opening speech of SteelOrbis general manager Murat Eryılmaz, Atakaş Çelik export director Haydar Küpeli summarized the development of Atakaş Çelik’s production facilities and capacity, emphasizing that the company has become one of the most modern facilities in Turkey. Mr. Küpeli stated that, thanks to the company’s integrated structure consisting of pickling, reversing rolling, galvanizing and painting facililties and steel service centers, its total annual processing capacity has exceeded 1.1 million mt.
Recalling that Turkey, with an annual crude steel production of around 37 million mt, is the eighth-largest producer in the world, Küpeli stated that in 2025 Turkey could surpass Germany and rise to seventh place. However, he noted that capacity utilization rates have declined in recent years, commenting, “In 2021, capacity utilization was 75 percent, but in 2023 it fell to 57 percent due to the earthquake. This year we expect it to approach 62 percent.”
The Aktaş Çelik official also stated that the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and safeguard measures create both risks and opportunities for Turkish steel producers. According to Küpeli, thanks to Turkey’s high share of electric arc furnace-based production and logistical advantages, it has the potential to stand out in the low-carbon product segment. If prices of high-emission producers such as China and India increase, Turkey may gain new opportunities in the European market with its competitiveness.
Turkish steel sector has been through a difficult two years
In the panel moderated by Murat Eryılmaz, Atakaş Çelik general manager Cem Üstün and Ekinciler Holding Group marketing director Kaan Özülü discussed the weak demand and the financial tightness that have persisted in the Turkish steel industry for the past two years.
Cem Üstün stated that the Turkish steel industry has been experiencing an unprecedented stagnation over the last two years, going on to say, “In the past, during periods of economic stagnation, interest rates would fall, which allowed the market to breathe. Now, demand is weak and financing is very expensive. Experiencing both at the same time puts pressure on the industry.” Üstün said that Atakaş Çelik continues its production and is increasing its capacity with new investments, but, despite this, the expected recovery in the market has not occurred. According to Üstün, the biggest dilemma facing the sector is that, although producers want to operate at full capacity due to high labor and energy costs, there is no market to sell material.
Mr. Özülü said that, under current conditions, companies’ motivation to invest has weakened. “With policy rates above 40 percent and profitability at 3-4 percent, it is not easy to invest,” he said, adding that, without monetary easing, they do not expect a significant recovery in domestic demand. However, if the process of cutting interest rates begins, capacity utilization could rise to 65-66 percent in 2026, he stated.
Protectionist policies remain on the agenda
Murat Eryılmaz raised the issue of how the protectionist trend spreading globally following Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States might affect the steel trade.
Mr. Özülü said that protectionist measures in the US could push scrap prices higher and thus narrow profit margins in Turkey, where scrap is the main raw material for steel production. However, according to Özülü, protectionist policies could also lead countries such as China, Mexico and South Korea, which find it difficult to export to the US, to occupy Turkey’s target markets.
Mr. Üstün shared a similar view, noting, “Protectionism has become a global reflex. The US and Europe are restricting imports to protect their industries. This creates challenges for export-oriented countries like ours.” He emphasized that uncertainty makes long-term planning impossible and underlined that a leader as unpredictable as Trump can change the entire trade balance overnight with sudden decisions.
Antidumping measures and the search for domestic protection
Commenting on the recent antidumping investigations launched in Turkey against cold rolled and coated products originating from China and South Korea, Üstün said that these measures are necessary to protect domestic production but must be implemented carefully. He stressed, “If we include products that are not produced in Turkey within the scope of protection, we will harm the industry. Our goal should be to protect domestic producers, not to block the industrial chain.”
Özülü drew attention to the structure of imports, saying, “Although China’s presence has recently declined, Russia’s exports to Turkey have increased significantly. Therefore, antidumping measures are appropriate, but this time competition is shifting to other markets.” He went on to emphasize that protectionism also affects export markets, stating that major exporting countries are changing their targets, which increases competition in the markets Turkey is involved in. He added that, while protecting the domestic market, care should be taken not to weaken exports.
Changes in inward processing regime may reduce competitiveness
Mr. Eryılmaz raised the recent restrictions on imports under Turkey’s inward processing regime (IPR) and asked the speakers to assess the impact of this regulation on exports.
Özülü stated that the IPR is of vital importance for the sector and pointed out that, while scrap imports are decreasing, billet imports continue to increase. Recalling that billet imports rose by about 55 percent to 2.9 million mt in the first eight months of 2025, Özülü said, “The new 25 percent domestic product use requirement may be correct, but, if it becomes permanent, Turkey will lose its competitive advantage in rebar exports.”
Cem Üstün agreed with this view, saying, “There has been a significant capacity increase in galvanized and pre-painted products in the last two years. Most of these products are produced using imported hot rolled coil and exported. If these imports are restricted, exports will fall.” He went on to say that exporting with imported products within the scope of the inward processing regime should not be punished but supported.
EU quotas and CBAM
Commenting on the quotas implemented by the EU and its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) which will come into force in 2026, Üstün described Europe’s carbon regulations as “the new filter of trade.” He adding, “Now it is not only product quality but also carbon footprint that determines price. With its low-carbon production infrastructure, Turkey is one of the countries most prepared for this transformation.” He further stated that Turkey can gain an advantage in this system if it makes diplomatic and technical preparations.
Özülü said that the EU’s carbon policies stand out more as a commercial protection measure than as an environmental one, though he went on to state, “If we can document our production chain and prove energy efficiency, CBAM will be an opportunity, not a threat, for us.” Emphasizing that Turkey is the closest alternative supplier to Europe, Özülü added that this issue should be negotiated at the state level. Companies cannot manage this process individually, so the public and private sectors must act together, he stressed.
Regional markets - Iraq and Syria
Özülü stated that Iraq was once one of the world’s fastest-growing construction markets but that in recent years Iranian products have become dominant. He noted that 90 percent of Iraq’s imports now come from Iran and that Turkey has lost its share in this market, but new opportunities could arise during Syria’s reconstruction process.
Üstün shared the same view, saying, “Syria will be rebuilt almost from scratch. This will create huge steel demand. However, for sustainable trade, political stability and financial infrastructure must first be established.”
Cautious optimism for 2026
At the end of the panel, both speakers gave cautiously optimistic messages regarding the future of the sector.
Üstün said, “In the past, we could make strategies valid for five years, but now the picture changes in three months. That’s why being flexible is a condition for survival.”
Özülü commented, “If the production chain has survived despite crises, it is entirely due to the agility of the sector. In the coming period, flexibility will be as important as capacity,” emphasizing that the greatest strength of the Turkish steel industry is its adaptability. According to experts, if financing channels open, interest rates fall, and green transformation investments accelerate, 2026 could be a year of renewed growth for the sector.
After the panel, Murat Sağman, founder of Sagam Strategy Consulting, gave a presentation on the Turkish economy as a whole, emphasizing that inflation and the resulting high interest rates remain the biggest problems for Turkish industry, and that negative expectations in the country are a major obstacle to lowering inflation.