The global steel market continues to witness a supply-and-demand imbalance and the situation has remained challenging due to China’s ongoing aggressive export policy. In particular, in early 2024 China has even accelerated its export presence in the longs segment, and the volumes in 2024 may exceed the record volumes seen in 2015. Low raw material prices allow Chinese sales to remain profitable, while constituting tough competition for other exporters.
In the EU, end-user demand has been quiet and particularly in Germany and, moreover, the situation is not likely to improve significantly before the second half of the current year. In the US, liquid steel production has been declining and, overall, customers in North America are waiting for interest rates to ease and some projects are on hold for the time being.
In Turkey, the local elections have been held and the economic situation has remained difficult and is expected to weaken even further. The Turkish lira will remain weak, which will continue to be a disadvantage for Turkish mills in terms of their costs. In the Red Sea, the situation on the one hand supports Turkish mills in terms of competition with Asian mills, but on the other hand the Turkish government has just put a restriction on steel supplies, including rebar, to Israel, which has been one of the largest and most consistent export markets for Turkish long steel exports.
Overall, conditions in the global steel market are challenging and fluctuating. The outlook for the next quarter is complicated and challenging, with significant uncertainty ahead for July, August and September.