At the beginning of the International Trade Council at the BIR (Bureau of International Recycling) Convention taking place in Valencia, Spain, on May 26-28, 2025, Professor Philippe Chalmin, professor of economic history and specialist on commodity markets, gave a captivating overview of the geopolitical changes that the world is going through. Amid the pandemic, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and Trump’s government, he said we are in the “roaring 20s of the 21st century […] we are witnessing the end of a gentle globalization era”.
According to Prof. Chalmin, we are going towards the crisis of multilateralism and a fractured world, which will inevitably create uncertainties for the future. Especially the US tariff issue is having a huge impact on all markets at the moment, and Trump’s actions will sooner or later lead to reactions from other countries. The US has already negotiated a preliminary agreement with China - which has the means to resist threats - and now they will have to find a compromise with the European Union, whose “only competitive advantage - Chalmin said - is to be able to speak with one mouth, despite the different interests that each European country has”.
This whole situation, Prof. Chalmin believes, has led to negative consequences for the US economy, including negative growth in the first quarter, the weakening of the dollar, and a stagflation scenario for the months to come. He added, however, that the situation will stabilize next year between 10 percent and 15 percent.
Next, Robin K. Wiener, president of the US-based Recycled Materials Association (ReMa), spoke about the association’s view of the growing protectionist attitude of their country, partially agreeing with Chalmin’s statements. Although it is true that the recycling industry is going through a very uncertain period, and that imposing tariffs is probably not the best solution to this ongoing crisis, she said that it is also true that what policymakers are trying to do is discern the different regimes that have different rationales. “There is a core belief in the political administration that the trade system is broken, and that in order to fix it you need to break it first”, she stated.
According to Ms. Wiener, although ReMa believes in global market access - the US exported $27 billion of recycled materials and imported $7 billion in 2024 - the US administration is acting in three different ways, or as she described them, three different buckets. The first bucket is about tariff control on imports, because retaliation from other countries might affect [their] exports. […] The second bucked is about export controls, because for the first time in 20 years the US government is controlling the exports of recycled material, which the industry has been arguing for it. […] And the third bucket is about fighting the increasing shipping costs of containerized recycled materials”.
Next up, Murat Bayram, managing director of European Metal Recycling Ltd. (EMR), highlighted the “toxic uncertainty of the market”, claiming that EU and non-EU countries should cooperate to address the shortage of recycled material, which results only from the production crisis. “Banning [recycled] raw material exports is not the solution, and neither is blaming each other,” he stated, adding, “Let’s build a bridge - rebuild a bridge - but the bridge can’t be built only from one side, it needs to be built on both sides. As a recycling industry, we can also start to build that bridge, but as long as you accept that the first pillar that this bridge lies on is free trade.”
Finally, Dhawal Shah, partner at Metco Ventures LLP, talked about how India is an emerging key market in the recycling industry, stating that the country is being strategic in the long term, strengthening its partnership with the United States and Europe, which are the main sources of its raw material imports.