Indonesian semi-finished stainless steel exports to the European Union surged by over 350 percent year on year in 2025, reaching an estimated 250,000-300,000 mt, according to trade sources. A significant share of these volumes is understood to be directed towards Italy, reinforcing its position as the primary processing hub within the bloc.
Provisional data from the EU statistics agency indicates that total EU imports of stainless semi-finished products (slabs and billets) rose by more than 36 percent on year y-o-y in 2025. Indonesian-origin material accounts for a substantial portion of this growth, with processed imports estimated to represent over 23 percent of the EU domestic market supply.
Trade policy gap supports inflows
While the EU continues to impose antidumping and countervailing duties on Indonesian hot-rolled and cold-rolled stainless steel, semi-finished products remain outside the scope of these restrictions. European mills are therefore importing competitively priced slabs and converting them into finished products domestically.
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), currently in its transitional phase, is not expected to materially curb these flows in the near term. With free carbon allowances still largely intact and financial obligations deferred until 2027, the effective CBAM cost impact remains limited. Market participants suggest that the price advantage of Indonesian slabs outweighs the prospective carbon burden.
Industry debate intensifies
The surge has sparked criticism within parts of the European stainless sector. Some industry participants argue that while protectionist measures are advocated for finished imports, reliance on lower-cost Indonesian semi-finished feedstock highlights structural competitiveness challenges.
Outlook
If current trade structures persist, Indonesian slab inflows are likely to remain elevated through 2026, particularly into southern Europe. Future policy adjustments under CBAM or expanded trade defence measures could reshape supply flows. In the near term, slab arbitrage economics and EU melt shop utilization rates will remain key indicators.
Source: BigMint
