At the 14th SteelOrbis Steel Conference “New Horizons in Steel Markets” held on Wednesday, November 6 in Istanbul, commenting on the latest developments affecting global trade, Fatih Çıtak, marketing director at Turkey’s Oyak Mining Metallurgy Group, shared his expectations for the coming period. Mr. Çıtak said that, looking at the global growth in the last ten years, it can be seen that demand has decreased in all sectors. Remarking that, following long-standing growth, such contractions are to be expected, he stated that for the 2020-2021 period growth is again expected to reach the annual average for the past 10 years, and that this period is expected to be a much more comfortable one in terms of commerce.
Commenting on protectionism in global trade, the Oyak official said, “We need to approach protectionism both in terms of companies and in terms of countries. Though countries try to determine their policies, once you start harming the structure of companies, you need to find a middle course. Therefore, Trump will not oppose the major companies in the US and allow them to shrink. We are also following the negotiations the US is carrying out with China; and we expect global trade to find a balance, rather than a full deglobalization or full globalization.”
Referring to the global economic slowdown, Mr. Çıtak said in the coming period growth might be expected again. Saying that the latest interest rate reductions in China signal a relief policy, though a symbolic one, he stated, “We believe that the worst is already past when we focus on what could happen next, instead of focusing on what happened before. We will be following a different path if the US and China come to an agreement in the first session of their negotiations and if the duties to be implemented on China starting from December 15 are postponed.”
On the other hand, Çıtak said that, if China strengthens its financial situation and increases its domestic market volume and export volume, there could be a strengthening of demand and prices in Europe exceeding expectations and that European exports to China might increase.