Five government departments in China, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) and the State Administration for Market Regulation, have issued the Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan for 2025-2026, stating that China will implement precise regulation of production capacity and output. According to local sources and Reuters, there are no concrete production cut targets, but the Chinese authorities are planning to support higher technology production and close outdated capacities. As noted in the plan, in the 2025-2026 period the value-added industrial output of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling sector in China may see a year-on-year rise of 4.0 percent.
At the same time, according to market insiders polled by SteelOrbis, China’s crude steel output will likely stand below 980 million mt in 2025, lower than 1.005 billion mt in 2024. Even considering these production cut expectations, they are still rather conservative. According to the data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the January-July period this year, China’s crude steel output amounted to 594.47 million mt, down 3.1 percent, which translates to a drop of 19 million mt compared to the same period of 2024. “There was talk [earlier this year] that China would cut 50 million mt [in 2025], but we see curbs being slower now. From September, demand will improve and production will increase. Let’s see what will happen in the fourth quarter,” a representative of one Chinese mill commented.
The total production reduction and ‘categorized management’ will be the main themes in the steel industry in the coming period. Categorized management means that the Chinese authorities will classify steel enterprises based on certain standards and implement management accordingly.
In 2024 overall, China’s output of crude steel totaled 1,005.09 million mt, declining by 1.7 percent year on year.
