So far in 2007, China's macro economy has maintained a trend of positive development. This is mainly due to the series of macro-control policies and measures implemented by China's central government from the beginning of 2007 in order to resolve acute problems in the economy.
For the first three quarters of 2007, China's GDP was RMB 16.6 trillion ($2.2 trillion), up 11.5 percent year on year. Of this figure, the average monthly GDP increase in each respective quarter was 11.1, 11.9 and 11.5 percent. Regarding industrial added value, the figure for primary industry was RMB 1.82 trillion ($0.24 trillion), up 4.3 percent; the figure for secondary industry was RMB 8.35 trillion ($1.1 trillion), up 13.5 percent; the figure for tertiary industry was RMB 6.43 trillion ($0.85 trillion), up 11.0 percent.
On the whole, the national economy indicates a stable and upward trend. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, there are four main features which characterize the economy: economic rapid growth, further structural optimization, increased profits and improvements in people's living standards.
Looking at the detailed figures, at the end of the first three quarters, total fixed assets investment had reached RMB 9.15 trillion, up 25.7 percent; the total value of imports and exports was RMB 1.57 trillion, up 23.5 percent; per capita disposable income had reached RMB 10,346, up 13.2 percent (inflation factor excluded); the total sales value of non-durable consumer goods was RMB 6.38 trillion, up 15.9 percent; and total investment in new housing was RMB 1.68 trillion, up 30.3 percent.
In the 39 major industry categories, the rapidly growing industries mainly included petroleum processing, the electro-mechanical sector, steelmaking, the automotive and transportation sector, electrical power, construction materials, chemicals, tobacco, medicine, beverages, and the textile industry. On the other hand, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products and by-products processing, communication devices, non-metal mining, paper making and oil mining were the industries which showed a remarkable slowdown in their growth rates.
Looking at another important figure, the CPI for October of 6.5 percent was officially issued on November 13. In addition to the high CPI figures for the previous two months, this latest figure indicates that the current national economy is somewhat overheated. In August, the inflation rate reached its highest level of the last decade at 6.5 percent. Later, it regressed to 6.2 percent in September, and is thought likely to reach 6.4 for October. The government has increased the interest rate five times this year in order to cool down the rise in inflation. Nevertheless, the Chinese central bank predicts that the country will grow by 11 percent this year.
Because the increase in per capita disposable income cannot match the increase in CPI, both the domestic consumers' confidence and satisfaction indices have shown a drop recently. It is forecasted that these two figures are expected to go down further in line with the rising prices of oil and various foods.
Meanwhile, China's foreign trade surplus is continuing to increase. From January to October 2007, the cumulative foreign trade surplus reached $212.4 billion, already exceeding the $177.5 billion record level for the whole of 2006. Therefore, China may see further pressure from outside to limit its exports and remove barriers against imports.