Edwin Basson, director of World Steel Association (worldsteel) addressed attendees during the first panel of the 60th Alacero meeting held this week in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and said that worldsteel sees only a slow growth in steel demand until 2040.
Basson added that their outlook confirms that there are developments that could lead to more EAF development going forward. He said that when looking forward, worldsteel thinks there is sufficient blast furnace capacity that will take the industry all the way through even 2100. Theoretically new steel demand can be satisfied by new scrap recycling or through EAFs, he concluded. According to Basson, new blast furnaces are not needed but he also added that some will be built in certain parts of the world for specific reasons. However, he said, technically all future demand can be satisfied by scrap recycling. Basson said this would mean a very stabilized steelmaking raw material output going forward, but since the supply of such materials are concentrated in certain regions of the world, the market is prone to price volatility due to several different reasons like monsoons or other climate factors or shipping issues, etc., he added.
Basson said it is not a necessarily negative picture overall in his view as worldsteel sees some growth going forward, although small growth. He added that worldsteel does see stability not only in terms of demand but also in the industry’s production capability. He said that the industry started overlaying the environmental challenges faced, steel remains one of the few materials in the world today that is not only needed by modern society but it has a very wide range of applications and is quite recyclable and reusable. Basson concluded that worldsteel also sees different trends in the use of steel in a variety of market sectors, and that is probably going to be the biggest single benefit to maintain steel as the material of choice into the future.