Australia’s iron ore export earnings are forecast to decline to A$107 billion in 2024-25 from A$136 billion in 2023-2024 and to A$83 billion in 2028-29, due to lower prices over the outlook period, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
The export earnings forecast for the fiscal year 2024-25 has been revised up from A$102 billion in the previous report.
Iron ore prices have experienced bouts of strength in recent months, on the back of positive market sentiment following a series of Chinese government measures to support China’s economy. After falling to a low of around US$98/mt in mid-2023, the benchmark iron ore spot price recovered to average over US$125/mt in January-February 2024.
The report pointed out that the benchmark iron ore price is projected to steadily fall to an average of about US$68/mt by 2029.