According to the latest monthly market report issued by Assofermet on July 10, 2026, the introduction of the new EU safeguard measures has caused significant uncertainty among market participants, mainly due to the sharp reduction in quotas, the new rules governing the “Other Countries” quotas, and the fact that the final provisions were announced only shortly before the measures entered into force.
Carbon flat steel: tighter availability and further price increases expected
In the carbon flat steel segment, concerns are growing over the availability of the grades and volumes required by the European manufacturing sector. According to initial estimates from market participants, the quotas that can realistically be used could fall by 60-70 percent, taking into account the risk of the 50 percent duty, existing antidumping measures, and the allocation of quotas to countries that traditionally export only limited volumes of steel to the EU.
Assofermet warned that the new framework could lead to higher costs for European industry without any corresponding improvement in demand, which remained weak in June. After temporarily suspending sales in early July, Italian producers returned to the market with widespread price increases. The association therefore expects steel prices to follow a gradual but prolonged upward trend.
Stainless flat steel: demand continues to weaken
Demand in the stainless flat steel segment slowed further in June, with no signs of a recovery in the short term. The decline in consumption is also being linked to the progressive relocation of manufacturing activity outside the EU.
According to Assofermet, trade defense measures are restricting imports of coils and plates, while finished products and components manufactured in third countries continue to enter the European market more easily.
Stockholding segment: June marks a setback
Following the improvement recorded in May, June saw a fresh decline in sales, both in volume and value terms. The market continues to be characterized by weak demand, high inventory levels and limited trading activity.
Long steel products declined both year on year and month on month, affected by weakness in the automotive and heavy manufacturing sectors, as well as by the absence of significant new construction projects.
The picture for flat products was more mixed. Compared with June 2025, the segment recorded an improvement, while volumes declined compared with May. Some purchases were brought forward ahead of July 1, in anticipation of a price-supportive effect from the new safeguard measures.
In hollow sections, sales of hot rolled products increased, while cold formed products were negatively affected by lower order volumes from the light manufacturing and subcontracting sectors.
Stainless steel: tubular and long products weaken, flat products recover
In the stainless steel segment, tubular and long products recorded the sharpest declines. Stainless flat products moved in the opposite direction, supported by selective demand from the food and chemical-pharmaceutical sectors.
Offers from European producers are consolidating at their highest levels since the beginning of the year. However, distributors are still struggling to pass higher costs on to end-users. Margins therefore remain under pressure, and September could prove decisive for the medium-term economic sustainability of the sector.
Tinplate: market divided over the outlook
In the tinplate segment, the reduction in import quotas to around 400,000 mt, equivalent to approximately 20 percent of European consumption, is generating mixed views among market participants.
Some operators believe that current inventory levels and available production capacity will be sufficient to prevent supply shortages. Others expect a possible recovery in demand and higher European prices, also supported by rising raw material costs, particularly tin.
Outlook: prices supported, demand recovery unlikely before the fourth quarter
Assofermet expects trading activity to remain weak in July and August, due to the seasonal slowdown and scheduled summer shutdowns at steel mills. The new safeguard measures are expected to support domestic prices, while a meaningful recovery in demand may not materialize before the fourth quarter.
From October 1, importers will also be required to provide documentation on the country where imported steel was melted and poured, adding further operational complexity for importers and distributors. Distribution margins are therefore expected to remain under pressure, amid potentially higher purchasing prices and still-selective downstream demand.