In the September buy cycle, US domestic scrap prices trended sideways while they decreased significantly in early October. Prices on scrap decreased from $25-55/mt depending on grade and region with a general stated month-on-month decline of $30/mt on shredded and $40/mt on busheling as the national average. Generally, the East coast was “hit the hardest” given the loss of support from the export market as Turkish mills booked imported scrap deals at increasingly lower prices prior to the buy-cycle. An ex-US deal for HMS I/II 80:20 at $301/mt CFR Turkey in late September effectively reduced prices by over $50/mt from the higher Turkish deals achieved in August.
According to various sources, the recent rebound in Turkish scrap import prices that are maintaining buoyancy above $305/mt CFR on HMS I/II 80:20, a soft gradual decline in seaborne coking coal and iron ore prices, and adequate demand are pointing to a sideways to slightly up outcome in the US domestic scrap November buy-cycle. East coast domestic scrap prices are expected to increase $5-15/mt on export support with inland regions trending strong sideways. A source noted that his only concern was “sufficient scrap feedstock inflows that may place pressure on prices due to a slight supply overhang.” While some planned maintenance outages at mills are expected in November, several dealer sources inform SteelOrbis that “they are estimated to be substantially less than those the industry encountered in October.”