Last week, SteelOrbis sources throughout the US said they believed that scrap prices were poised for an uptrend. “Finished steel prices are still strong, demand for scrap is still strong, and inflows have started to slow a bit due to seasonal factors,” a source noted.
Also notable is that many believed the market would likely firm by $20-$50/gt in November. This week, that stance has solidified.
“If you look at what’s going on with export, cargo [sales] prices are up by roughly $50/mt CFR in the past month,” a source said, adding that an ex-US cargo of HMS I/II 80:20 was sold to Turkey on October 6 at $448/mt CFR, while today, it’s been reported that the current estimations for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap are trending in the range of $502-$503/mt CFR.
Another source agreed, adding that while the East coast docks haven’t “officially” raised their prices yet, that quiet deals, of up to $20/gt above the “talked about rate,” have been available to certain sellers based on volume.
“For next month, I think we’re looking at up $20/gt on prime and up a minimum of $40/gt, maybe $50/gt on cuts and shred,” an Ohio-Valley source said. “I don’t see any downside to the market for the rest of the year, and if anything, I think we’ll see some additional appreciation in December.”
A second source agreed. “I’m hearing that the market could be up by $70-$100/gt between now and December,” the source said. “Whether that’s up $40/gt this month and up $30/gt next month, or up $50/gt this month and up $20/gt next month, that remains to be seen.”
A final source also agreed that November’s price expectations are positive, all the way around. “I talked to a guy in the South who said they’re expecting to see prices com up by a minimum of $30/gt across the board,” he said. “I guess we’ll all find out where this thing lands by the end of next week.”