For the past 2 weeks, scrap market sources throughout the US believed that April prices would settle at sideways to slightly up. This week, however, after news that the price range for the most recent ex-US scrap cargo sales into Turkey were pushed down significantly (which brought the average price for ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 from $457-$460/mt CFR to a range of $435-$440/mt CFR), predictions for April have started to shift.
“I think it takes a bit of the steam out of the sales for sure,” said a source in the Midwest. “I believe [that busheling scrap prices] will still up a bit and most everything else [will settle at sideways.]
Another source in the Midwest said that at current, the market “does feel softer than it did earlier in the month,” adding that he feels that the market may hold sideways for most grades “with a possible slight uptick for shredded in certain markets.”
Sources in the Southeast and Northeast largely agree. Two Northeast sources were quick to point out that exporters in that region dropped their dock prices by another $10/gt earlier today.
“With the steep drop in Turkish prices this week, I think the USA mills will try to buy down on [cut grades] and sideways on prime,” a third source noted. “Whole market is sideways at best.”
A final source was more optimistic, adding that he believes that demand for scrap is still outpacing supply.
“For that reason I still feel optimistic that we’ll see strong-sideways pricing in April,” he said. “There is no true reason that scrap markets should soften in April.”
The April buy cycle is expected to start in approximately seven days.