Brazilian basic pig iron (BPI) exporters have increased their targeted price levels, expecting better demand and seeing the rather positive outlook for the scrap market in the US. One deal at a higher level is rumored to have been done to the US, but most market sources believe that this level is too high for the current market and that the bullishness is more for the future rather than based on business already done.
Some target prices for ex-Brazil BPI with 0.15 percent phosphorus content have been as high as $415-420/mt FOB South Brazil, which is up by $15/mt from the previous reference price. One producer said that it sold a cargo of 50,000-55,000 mt of BPI to the US at $443/mt CFR, which translates to as much as $415/mt FOB. However, a number of other market sources do not believe that this is a tradable level for most basic pig iron for February shipment. “I don’t think it is true. It could be a manipulation,” a Brazilian producer said. Another Brazilian source said that there are some offers still at $410/mt FOB, so he believes that this is possible only for lower-phosphorus BPI at best.
One of the reasons for higher pig iron offers has been the positive outlook for local scrap for January, with some market sources believing busheling scrap could settle on average $30/gt higher in January.
Also, Brazilian suppliers will have one of the best positions in the European market in 2026 as CBAM costs (default values for 2026) for Brazil has been calculated by SteelOrbis at €32.66/mt. “Some mills may even have lower costs due to their green charcoal use,” a source commented. But, for now, European buyers are quiet because of the upcoming holidays, and they have managed to secure a lot of volumes to be shipped before the end of this year.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Brazil BPI has settled at $405-410/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on average.