January domestic US scrap is now discussed mixed for next month, with some market insiders calling scrap values sideways to soft-sideways to December, little changed from a week ago, while others call it sideways to higher amid expectations for better demand from mills in the new month, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
“I hope this thing goes up, but I remain unsure whether the fundamentals will support it,” said one Midwest scrap dealer. “The talk is steady heading into the holidays right now, with some predicting higher, while others see January scrap moving lower.”
The insider added that improved finished steel demand is unlikely until later in the first quarter 2025. “My sense right now is that we’ll see the markets soft-sideways for January. November and December were (bad) months, and things don’t seem very promising until later on in Q1.”
Other scrap insiders reported that January scrap markets could trade sideways to potentially higher.
“I would speculate that we’ll see stronger seasonal demand coming from the mills next month as there are more melt days in January than were available in December,” he said. “There’s also a higher certainty that more EAFs will be coming online versus going offline in January, so that should help improve demand.”
Traders said activity in the January scrap markets likely will be limited next week ahead of Christmas, as well as the week following leading up to the New Years holiday.
“We’ll resume discussions after the New Year, but I think things could ultimately be higher,” he said.
During the December buy cycle, Ohio Valley scrap settled sideways to $10/gt ($10/mt) less, SteelOrbis data shows, with HMS 1 down $10/gt at $320-340/gt ($325-345/mt) delivered to customer, shredded scrap was off $10/gt to $375-380/gt ($381-386/mt) on a delivered basis, while P&S settled $10/gt lower at $366-$376/gt ($372-382/mt) delivered to customer. Busheling settled sideways to November at $390-415/gt ($396-422/mt) delivered to customer.
In the US Northeast, pricing was off across the board, though declines were less severe owing to scrap export opportunity, insiders said. HMS settled down just $2/gt from November settles at $335-350/gt ($340-356/mt) delivered to customer, while shredded saw pricing down $5/gt to $365-375/gt ($371-381/mt) delivered. P&S action was settled $5/gt less at $335-345/gt ($340-351/mt) on a delivered basis, while busheling scrap was also off $5/gt to $390-410/gt ($395-417/mt) delivered to customer, market insiders told SteelOrbis.