Turkey’s import scrap market has remained very silent this week after the supplier regions have left the market due to Christmas and New Year holidays. Market sources report that Turkish mills have already completed enough deep sea scrap purchases. In a livelier year, new deals over the holiday season would not be a surprise for Turkey, though this year Turkish mills are also in no rush.
Several market sources believe that the first week of 2025 will not be much different from this week. “We expect 2025 to make a slow start. Actually, the first quarter is a question overall. A negative sentiment in terms of steel trading is there. It will impact scrap directly,” a scrap supplier commented. A German-based scrap sub-collector also said that they are not expecting a price hike in January, “Maybe even not in the first quarter for our domestic scrap prices. This means the scrap flow will be sent to exports and there may not be a shortage due to winter.” Euro-US dollar exchange rate remains at 1.04 and may provide some room for European scrap exporters, SteelOrbis observes.
This week, Turkey has announced minimum wage will be increased by 30 percent in 2025 and is determined at TRY 22,104 per month. This level is lower than most expectations. Additionally Turkish central bank has cut its key interest rate by 250 basis points to 47.5 percent, higher than the initial expectation. The rate was last cut in early 2023 and had been held at 50 percent since March. These developments raised questions about energy prices. Some economists are voicing their expectation about an energy price hike in February. No official announcement about this is expected before the second half of January.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved sideways week on week. The prices are now 2.64 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $347-353/mt CFR.
January domestic US scrap is now discussed sideways to strong sideways, versus a more mixed call offered seven days earlier, amid expectations for better demand from mills for the new month, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this holiday week.
“Shipments are strong, and we’re getting everything that we have booked thus far,” said one US domestic mill scrap market insider, commenting on recent scrap shipments. “I’d say the call right now for Midwest busheling, shredded and (P&S), is 70 percent sideways and 30 percent higher for January”. No updated call for the US Northeast January scrap was available, therefore, it will be maintained at sideways to December as was reported a week earlier.
After the last BDSV publication around November 20, the final week of the month was characterized by an absence of changes and a silent market. Some light optimism in the local German scrap market was seen during the third week of December, probably due to the rises in export prices to Turkey which were at $349.5/mt CFR for HMS I/II 80:20 in the last deal reported. Nonetheless, some sources claimed reductions from €7/mt to €20/mt on purchase prices for January deliveries depending on the grade and on the mill, whereas others report no changes. SteelOrbis, however, believes that these new rises seen in the export market to Turkey are just an end-of-year spark and will not last long. If demand from Turkey keeps increasing, prices in the local German scrap market will have to follow.
According to the latest data provided by the Bundesvereinigung Deutscher Stahlrecycling-und Entsorgungsunternehmen e.V, in the first 20 days of November, scrap prices moved down by €0.6-8.5/mt month on month. On year-on-year basis, scrap prices indicated declines ranging from €21.3/mt to €59.8/mt.
Taiwan’s import scrap market has continued to move down with ex-Japan offers and deals, while US-based suppliers are still out of the market amid ongoing holidays. Offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan are still too few in numbers. Due to the Christmas week, trading between the US and Taiwan has nearly stopped. Offers shared for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk have declined to $309-315/mt CFR Taiwan from last week’s $315-320/mt CFR. One producer has concluded an ex-Japan booking for this grade slightly below $310/mt CFR.
With the holiday season starting in the US, Vietnam’s import scrap market has declined further in terms of ex-Japan prices. Offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have decreased over the past week by approximately $10/mt further to $320-325/mt CFR. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers disappeared in the market amid the holidays.