Prices in Turkey’s import scrap market have remained stable this week. As Turkish mills conclude deals for December and January shipments, there are not many offers in the market. Still, any serious offer finds a buyer quickly, market sources report.
The uptrend which started during the week September 15-21 with HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $331/mt CFR came to a halt during the week November 3-9 with average prices settling at $352/mt CFR. The last time this price was recorded in Turkey’s import scrap market was in April this year. While scrap collection prices in the supplier regions have remained relatively stable over the past week, with EU export yards still bidding at around €255-260/mt DAP, efforts to push down collection prices are met with resistance from suppliers.
Towards the end of the week, more deals surfaced indicating that ex-Baltic benchmark HM S I/II 80:20 scrap prices have settled to $353-354/mt CFR. One ex-Poland deal was concluded by a Marmara-based steel producer with HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $353/mt CFR, while another ex-Poland booking by an Izmir-based producer was closed at the same level. These deals indicate that ex-Baltic prices have increased by around $1.75/mt on average. There were rumors of an ex-Germany booking done by an Izmir-based producer earlier in the week, with HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $354.5/mt CFR. This information has not been confirmed by the parties, but it is observed that market players on all sides consider this level to be acceptable. As a result, SteelOrbis has also revised its ex-UK/EU scrap prices up by $1,5/mt to $350-353/mt CFR, which is conservative on the upper end due to lack of confirmation.
Some market sources believe that deep sea scrap prices in Turkey will remain firm into next year amid slow scrap collection activities and high collection costs, with US producers returning from maintenances and given unattractive import billet offers. More market players state that, even though current rebar prices in Turkey continue to find buyers, the demand situation may change as the winter starts. SteelOrbis believes that there is a balance in Turkey’s import scrap market and a consensus between buyers and sellers in terms of prices. Consequently, HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices are set to move sideways with only small fluctuations.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved up by 0.14 percent week on week. The prices are now 1.22 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, with quotations being in the range of $350-355.5/mt CFR.
The December outlook for US scrap pricing remains sideways in weekly market discussions with most scrap buyers this week, though increasing chatter among suppliers indicates a $10-20/gt premium is increasingly more likely, especially if mills emerge as larger scrap buyers next month, when most annual maintenance operations will have been completed, market insiders told SteelOrbis. January-February scrap is seen by some up $20-40/gt as demand expectations for 2026 supply requirements begins to emerge.
“Scrap is likely to rise in the December through February period,” remarked one US Gulf Coast long steel market insider speaking on his scrap outlook. “This should provide firm cost support for rebar pricing. We expect [long steel] to hold firm into winter and likely trend higher with scrap. Tight supply availability is the number one driver,” he added, “and lead times [for rebar] are stretching out toward January-February.”
Another Upper Midwest scrap insider remained less convinced pricing would move higher for December. “Mills saying sideways, while suppliers are calling it $10-20/gt higher sounds about right,” he commented, “The problem is, that they will [mess around] for a week and a half and [November] will be over, so, I just don’t know at this point.”
While higher scrap prices are seeming a better possibility each week leading up to the start of December buy-cycle negotiations, based on a developing consensus for a sideways to up December settlement, US Midwest prime busheling scrap could finish next month at or above $385-395/gt ($391-401/mt) on a delivered to mill basis. Midwest shredded scrap, which is still called flat to potentially $10-20/gt higher, is likely to finish for December at or above its November close at $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt), though a solid market call remains inconclusive as buyers and sellers still remain far divided. Ohio Valley HMS grades which finished sideways for November, are likely to settle flat to up from $315-335/gt ($320-340/mt), while P&S scrap, which settled flat this month, could settle sideways to up from its November close at $351-361/gt ($357-367/mt), scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.
No major variations have been reported in the local Italian scrap market this week. Mills’ production rates are proceeding at a regular pace, but some scrap traders have been struggling in terms of both buying and selling volumes.
Concerns are growing among local scrap suppliers in Italy, especially about the beginning of next year, which is marked by various uncertainties mainly related to CBAM and safeguard measures.
Approaching the end of November, in negotiations for scrap purchase prices in the local German scrap market, most mills have decided to keep their prices unchanged or to apply slight upward corrections to be in line with market levels.
In the northern part of the country, plants have generally raised scrap purchase prices by €5-10/mt. In eastern, western and southwestern Germany, instead, scrap purchase prices from mills have remained at unchanged levels. However, one plant in the east, one plant in the Saar region and one plant in the south have increased their scrap purchase prices by €10/mt, €15/mt and €10/mt, respectively, with the aim of creating a homogeneous market in terms of prices.
The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer Tokyo Steel has continued to increase its quotations for local scrap purchases. Despite the upward revision of the producer’s Japanese yen-based quotations, its dollar-based prices have moved down due to the depreciating yen. This latest price increase is the ninth consecutive upward revision of Tokyo Steel’s prices.
The general price range for H2 grade scrap has increased by JPY 500/mt to JPY 39,500-44,500/mt ($251-282/mt) depending on the mill. The Takamatsu region still represents the lower end of the general range. The Tahara, Okayama, Kyushu and Tokyo Bay plants still represent the upper end of the general price range. Including the changes in the exchange rates, the dollar-based quotations have moved down by $2/mt on the lower end and by $3/mt on the upper end as compared to the levels announced on November 11.
Taiwan’s import scrap prices have remained firm over the past week despite the lack of steel demand. Market sources report that the Taiwanese rebar market is “not healthy due to several problems and rebar prices are still at the bottom, with no buyers.” As a result, buyers show little interest in import scrap offers, especially from Japan. A source at a major Taiwanese producer said, “Rebar prices are so low that even buying cheap import billets would not cover rebar costs.”
Over the past week, offer prices for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers have softened by $2/mt on the upper end to $296-305/mt CFR, indicating a relatively stable trend. Actual deal prices have remained unchanged for this grade at $295/mt CFR.
Offers for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk cargoes are in the range of $316-327/mt CFR, up by $1-5/mt on the upper end. Although the lowest level accepted by sellers is at $315/mt CFR, Taiwanese buyers are bidding at $310/mt CFR and lower for this grade. No deals have been done in Taiwan this week for Japanese scrap.
Import scrap offers shared with Vietnamese buyers have remained stable over the past week. Market sources report that Turkey’s unusual demand for ex-US West Coast cargoes has provided some support for US origin scrap offers to Vietnam, but there is no real demand in the country right now at such prices.
After picking up slightly last week, ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have remained unchanged this week in the range of $350-355/mt CFR. Sources report that workable levels are still at around $340/mt CFR. Market sources report that there have been no new deals from the US to Vietnam “due to weak demand in Asia and strong demand from Turkey”.
Vietnam’s Japanese H2 scrap purchases have been closed at $325/mt CFR over the past week, with offers remaining at around $330/mt CFR, unchanged for the fourth week in a row. Market sources report that there is no upward or downward push on prices and ex-Japan scrap offers are expected to remain stable for now as steel demand in Vietnam has been on the low side.
This week, the Tokyo Bay FAS-based prices for H2 grade scrap have remained stable at JPY 43,000/mt ($274/mt), down by $5/mt on dollar basis. The FOB-based export price remains at JPY 44,000/mt ($281/mt) for the grade in question, down by $4/mt week on week.
Pakistan’s import scrap prices have remained relatively stable or have been showing a slight downward bias in occasional deals over the past two weeks, amid weak domestic demand, the continuous depreciation of the rupee and tight liquidity conditions. According to sources, Pakistan’s imported scrap market may experience modest upward pressure as cold weather hampers collection by EU suppliers. Nevertheless, limited access to liquidity, despite a traditional rise in demand toward month-end could prevent mills and importers from pursuing more assertive booking strategies. This week, most offers for ex-EU/UK shredded scrap in containers have dropped to $353-355/mt CFR, versus $355-360/mt CFR two weeks ago. Besides, according to sources, several deals for around 6,000 mt of shredded scrap have been signed at the abovementioned levels during the past seven days. Meanwhile, offers for ex-UAE HMS grade scrap have been voiced at $338-343/mt CFR Qasim port, compared to $343/mt CFR two weeks ago. Offer prices for shredded scrap from the UAE have settled at around $360/mt CFR, down by $5/mt over the past two weeks.