The uptrend in Turkey’s import scrap market is expected to continue in the coming period. Market sources state that the main driver of the rising trend is Turkey’s steel export sales and that prices are healthy under the current circumstances. Turkish mills have sold out for 2020 and have filled their January order books and nearly filled their February order books, while foreign markets continue to show demand for Turkish steel. As the Turkish mills are unwilling to take risks for March, most of them are giving prices for March shipments, while some voice $510-520/mt FOB for rebar exports, according to market sources.
While the market expects levels of at least $330/mt CFR Turkey for prime grade scrap cargoes, some even expect $340/mt CFR Turkey in the first round of purchases. Market players have added that it is currently not possible to calculate collection costs for the coming period as the rise in import scrap prices in Turkey is expected to result in an increase in collection quotations no matter what happens. Some suppliers have even mentioned that they are not sharing any offers with Turkish mills as they prefer to be cautious and are expecting a further increase in prices. Considering the saturation of Turkish steelmakers’ order books, they cannot afford the luxury to take some time off and wait, which could help to end this current uptrend, most market intermediates state. Having said that, more than one market source said that, under the current conditions, it seems safe to say that all players - suppliers and mills - are happy with the current situation.
Some market players state that the general prices in Turkey’s import scrap market has increased to a new range for prime scrap of $300-350/mt CFR. The suppliers have collected some tonnages for their December shipments, while they need more and also their January shipments are expected to start right after the completion of December shipments. The winter months such as December and January are considered traditionally problematic in terms of collection. Also, due to the end-of-year holidays, the days available for collection in December are fewer. Although the rising trend in the import scrap market is expected to continue for January shipments, the pace of the uptrend is predicted to be slower.
Additionally, Bulgaria and Romania origin short sea scrap quotations are estimated to be in the range of $305-310/mt CFR Turkey.
As a result of Turkey’s export sales, Turkish mills are expected to buy more scrap tonnages than initially forecast for December shipments. Some market sources estimate that Turkey’s purchases for December shipments are currently close to 1.1 million tons of scrap, while some said that Turkey has booked approximately 33 cargoes for the same period.