Turkish producers have been fulfilling their traditional pre-Ramadan ramp-up with numerous transactions of US and EU scrap cargos. The increased activity and anticipated rise in US domestic prices, has enabled US scrap suppliers to raise their prices $15-$20/mt over last week's numbers. Current rates of ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 have been heard at $360-$365/mt CFR, up $10-$15 from last week. However, it should be noted that a decline in Turkish activity is anticipated leading up to the month-long holiday, with modest-at-best activity to take place from its start on August 11 to completion on September 10.
Far Eastern producers have opted to remain on the sidelines of the US scrap export market as the forecast for US domestic scrap is sideways to up, leaving them to view the price as being disadvantageous. With ex-US containerized scrap prices heard at $345-$350/mt CFR HMS I/II 80:20 Taiwan, $335-$340/mt CFR HMS I/II 80:20 Korea, and freight rates at $65 Dallas and $39 US West Coast, US suppliers are more inclined to hold inventories in anticipation of the forecasted pricing upticks. Bulk shipments of ex-US material were recently heard at $375-$380/mt CFR Vietnam. Also of note is that industry sources believe that Far Eastern activity will be made up of smaller tonnage transactions until there is a clear picture of US domestic trends.
The US domestic market is expected to have a supply driven increase of $20-$30/lt in August. This may be due in part to reports that US scrap inventory is tight on the supplier level, which together with the pressure from overseas increases, is a driving force behind the forecasted increase. Others, though, believe supply shortages are more of a regional issue. One major US scrap supplier indicated that some of their yards have adequate inventory while others are feeling pressure. Other sources point to US scrap suppliers holding inventory for the expected increase, thus adding to the buzz of lower US scrap supplies.