Prices for ex-Australia premium hard coking coal (PHCC) have rebounded back to over $190/mt FOB as rumors about possible export duty in Mongolia have triggered supply concerns in the global market and stable demand from India.
A deal for 75,000 mt of mid-volatile Goonyella PHCC was signed at $193/mt FOB for July laycan in the middle of this week. The previous deal from the miner for this grade was at $195.6/mt FOB but was done in mid-May, while the latest bids for mid-volatile material were at $185/mt FOB at best. This deal was for the Indian market, where demand was rather stable and buyers were eager to purchase after some pause. Traders were offering at $208-210/mt on CFR basis to Indian mills.
Also, an offer for 75,000 mt of low-volatile Oaky North PHCC returned to $190/mt FOB, similar to what was seen on Friday but up by $4/mt from the previous offer seen early this week. The material is aimed for sale to China or the Far East market, which may be impacted by the limitations in supply from Mongolia. On June 4, rumors emerged that Mongolia is going to introduce a 20 percent royalty tax for coking coal exporters, which will significantly impact the Chinese market. Even though there have been no official announcements, coking coal futures prices in China increased by seven percent yesterday, June 5.
At the beginning of 2025, the Mongolian government estimated that annual coking coal exports would reach 45 million mt. Ex-Mongolia coking coal accounted for 25-30 percent of total coking coal imports arriving in China.