Will billet prices maintain September levels in October?

The end of Europe's holiday period, along with the demand increase in North Africa and the Middle East, resulted in a price rise in the Black Sea and Mediterranean regions in early September. CIS-origin billet prices were at $390-400/mt FOB in late August. However, they began to increase towards the end of September with the demand coming especially from Italy and Egypt. Billet prices are currently in the range of $410-420/mt FOB, but Turkey is not showing much interest in these levels. Iran seems to be the only market for the time being which is ready to pay the $420/mt FOB levels. The robust demand from Iran and the strong CIS domestic long product market will help CIS prices move independently from the Middle Eastern and European markets. Turkish mills Kardemir and Isdemir raised their prices last week, announcing $452/mt and $455/mt respectively for 100 x 100 St 37 billet. This week, Kardemir announced a second rise for its 100 x 100 St 37 billet increasing its price to $456/mt. The strong domestic rebar market supported the billet demand in the local market. Some Turkish mills were relatively aggressive in their billet exports in August. However, they slacked off in their aggressive exporting stance during September with the increase in the domestic market. Their offers are currently in a price range of $440-450/mt FOB for November / December shipments. However, there is not much billet availability for export. Chinese-origin billet is not influencing the Mediterranean region as much as in July. Some offers at $430-440/mt CFR have been reported for certain Mediterranean ports, but no demand for Chinese imports has developed yet. Prices and demand are in a good condition in September. It seems that the increase in prices has slowed down. The fact that Turkish mills have reduced their scrap purchases will create pressure on scrap. This situation will also affect the semi-finished market. While the strength in the Southern European and Turkish domestic markets continues, billet prices in Italy rose to Euro 375-380/mt delivered to customers' premises. However, customers in Mediterranean are not showing interest in imported billets that will be delivered in late autumn. This situation may cause slightly more variety in October than September.