US wire rod market – Have domestic prices hit their peak?

After two slow weeks without any upward price movement, domestic wire rod prices seem to have peaked. However, the pricing trend is still slightly up, as demand is still high. Also, labor experts are watching the situation at Gerdau Ameristeel very closely. The labor contract at their Amboy, NJ plant will expire July 19 and many market-watchers are speculating that after last year's protracted lockout in Beaumont, TX, a new contract will not be reached in time. This could affect not only the New Jersey plant; indeed, all of Gerdau Ameristeel's steel mills could potentially be hit by labor action. This week, domestic wire rod offers still range from $27.00 cwt. to $28.00 cwt. ($595 /mt to $617 /mt or $540 /nt to $560 /nt) FOB mill for low carbon, and from $29.50 cwt. to $31.50 cwt. ($650 /mt to $694 /mt or $590 /nt to $630 /nt) FOB mill for high carbon. There are indications that Mittal Steel will announce a $1.50 cwt ($33.00 /mt or $30.00 nt) price increase for their wire rod as of August 1, 2006. The import trend for mesh grade wire rod, up last week, is now neutral. The main reason for the shift is the softening on the Chinese market. Turkish prices are still much higher than Chinese prices, but they may soften soon. For now, high rebar prices and the strong construction market in the US are helping to keep Turkish mesh prices high. The trend for import drawing quality rods is now slightly down since demand for it is not as strong. Import offers in the market range from $24.50 cwt. to $25.50 cwt. ($540 /mt to $562 /mt or $490 /nt to $510 /nt) FOB, loaded-truck, in US Gulf ports for low carbon and from $26.00 cwt. to $27.00 cwt. ($572 /mt to $595 /mt or $520 /nt to $540 /nt) for high carbon FOB, loaded-truck, in US Gulf ports. Year-to-date import statistics, as of July 3, show that the following countries exported the most wire rod to the US in 2006 thus far: China, at 487,973 mt; Canada, at 163,872 mt; and Turkey, at 149,860 mt.