Sources tell SteelOrbis that another price increase in the US domestic rebar market is “still very possible,” but for this week, spot prices are still trending firm. Even so, other sources are speculating that mills might be rethinking their aggressive push for higher prices given a few current market factors.
First, predictions for the US domestic scrap market in February points to a sideways to slightly down trend for shredded scrap. Without the leverage from high raw material costs, sources say US mills would have a tougher time justifying another price increase so soon.
Second, after a period of lackluster import arrivals, January and February are shaping up to be strong months in the import market. Import rebar permits for this month (as of Jan. 30) finally cracked the 100,000 mt threshold after three months of dampened arrivals, and according to sources, a “substantial” order for Turkish rebar that was recently booked could be “the first of many” large-tonnage transactions. Competition with a renewed flood of rebar imports could be a “key deterrent” to raising US domestic rebar prices.
Until then, US domestic rebar spot prices are still trending in the range of $36.25-$37.25 cwt. ($725-$745/nt or $799-$821/mt) ex-mill.