Spot prices for domestic rebar are still hovering in last week's range, but the possibility of near-term firming is uncertain.
After digesting the neutral price trend announced by US rebar mills last week, buyers in the domestic market have not shown any willingness to firm spot prices closer to official asking prices. Spots are still in the range of $35.00-$36.00 cwt. ($772-$794/mt or $700-$720/nt), about $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt) below official mill asking prices for both February and March shipments. Considering that speculation for March scrap pricing is pointing toward a sideways to slightly downward trend, the only thing that could possibly lift spot prices closer to the asking range is a measurable increase in demand. Fortunately, such an increase is not entirely out of the question.
The US Census Bureau announced Wednesday that housing starts surged 14.6 percent in January compared to December, supporting arguments that this spring's construction season will be noticeably better than last year. However, while such news could have an influence on rebar demand in the next month or so, this past week has not shown any signs of an uptick.
As for imports, Turkish mills are trying to hold firm on prices, but SteelOrbis has learned that they are under pressure and looking for rebar orders, which could lead to a price softening soon. Until then, however, US traders are not inclined to cut prices, so Turkish rebar offers are still in the range of $34.50-$35.50 cwt. ($761-$783/mt or $690-$710/nt) duty paid FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports.
Mexican mills are also holding onto current prices, which are at the same level reported for the last few weeks. Offers in the range of $36.25-$37.25 cwt. ($799-$821/mt or $725-$745/nt) duty paid FOB delivered to US border states did not change after US scrap prices were announced last week, and even though some Mexican mills are notorious for cutting quiet deals here and there, SteelOrbis has not been aware of any as of late.