The determination of Gerdau Long Steel North America to stick by their higher rebar price increase has led to another small jump in the spot market, with the new range of $33.00-$34.00 cwt. ($728-$750/mt or $660-$680/nt) ex-mill finally reflecting Gerdau's full $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) increase announced two weeks ago. Further, sources tell SteelOrbis that the uptrend shows no signs of abating, despite an early neutral outlook for scrap prices next month. Based on the success of the recent price increases--which had as much to do with demand as raw material costs--it is very likely that mills will announce another price increase in the beginning of December. How much that increase will be is up for debate, although many are eyeing a $0.50 cwt. ($11/mt or $10/nt) bump if scrap prices trend neutral, and up to $1.00 cwt. or more if scrap prices begin to show strength.
As for imports, demand remains spotty as offer prices stagnate. Scrap prices in Turkey are up, resulting in slightly higher rebar offers to the US on the CFR level, but traders are not confident they can pass the increase onto customers in the US. As such, Turkish rebar offers are still in the range of $30.00-$31.00 cwt. ($661-$683/mt or $600-$620/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports. Mexican rebar prices are also in the same range, delivered to US border states, but there are no indications Mexican mills will try to "rock the boat" with their prices to the US. Meanwhile, alternative import sources such as Korea and Portugal have lost the excitement of their novelty in the US, and traders report little to no bookings for the time being. However, once the trade case against Turkey and Mexico moves along, that disinterest could definitely turn around.