Both US domestic and import rebar offers have declined further in the last week, even as the sentiment for December scrap prices is starting to look positive and prices have improved in some overseas markets.
Although Turkish mills have slightly raised their domestic and export rebar prices in recent weeks based on higher raw material prices, Mexico remains the only competitive import rebar source in the US, and offers continue to weaken alongside the soft US prices.
Import rebar offers from Mexico declined by approximately $0.25 cwt. ($5.50/mt or $5/nt) since last week, with most offers now ranging from $20.75 cwt. to $21.75 cwt. ($457/mt to $480/mt or $415/nt to $435/nt) delivered to Texas. However, even at this range, it is difficult to get any US bookings as it is only slightly under the US domestic price level, and domestic mills are generally willing to cut deals for any decent-sized orders.
On the US domestic end, most offers have also softened by about another $0.25 cwt. since last week, and most offers now range from $21.75 cwt. to $22.25 cwt. ex-mill. ($480/mt to $491/mt or $435/nt to $445/nt) ex-mill.
Though Nucor officially kept prices stable for December, spot offers are expected to drop a little further over the next few weeks as weak demand and plentiful supplies continue to weigh heavily on the market. On the bright side, with Turkey recently returning to the global scrap market, there is early talk that US scrap prices will rise in December, which should help US and Mexican rebar prices find a floor as well.
The latest import license data from the US DOC shows that US import rebar volumes rose in October from September, led by a decent-sized increase in Turkish tons. However, as of November 18, permits for Turkish rebar have dropped back down to zero.
US rebar import licenses for October totaled 27,009 mt, with Turkey accounting for the bulk (18,617 mt). At the same time, Mexican imports dropped in half in October from the prior month, totaling 6,443 in October (based on license data). The third-largest import rebar source in October was the Dominican Republic, accounting for 1,546 mt. In November thus far, only 1,987 mt are recorded, with most of the tons coming from Mexico.