In the last couple years, the first quarter has been marked by a flood of rebar imports into the US, and although import rebar offers from Turkey and Mexico are still technically available in the US, buyers and traders are remaining cautious. This import uncertainty, combined with relatively decent demand levels, has reportedly led US domestic rebar mills to believe an order surge is just around the corner. Sources say mills expect US buyers to stick to domestics for their New Year stock, and such optimism could even be the basis of a transaction price increase in the next month or two--at the very least, mills have already indicated they will not be offering "foreign fighter" deals usually available in the fall to beat the Q1 import flood. This week US spot prices are still in the range of $31.50-$32.50 cwt. ($705-$717/mt or $630-$650/nt) ex-mill, but if mills remain silent after the predicted decrease in scrap prices this month, it will be a strong indicator of mills' bullish attitude toward rebar prices.
As for imports, interest is not exactly robust in the alternative rebar sources that have cropped up in the wake of the recent AD/CVD petition. Korean rebar is still being offered at $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ($705-$727/mt or $640-$660/nt) DDP loaded truck in West Coast ports, while Japanese offers have largely dissipated along with Japanese mill interest in the US market. Contested sources Turkey and Mexico are still offering in last week's ranges of $29.00-$30.00 cwt. ($639-$661/mt or $580-$600/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports and $29.50-$30.50 cwt. ($650-$672/mt or $590-$610/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states, respectively, although some traders report that they are trying to ask for $0.50 cwt. ($11/mt or $10/nt) more for Turkish rebar to "get what they can get while they can."