This time last year in the US rebar market, many import deals were being fixed at the annual industry event, World of Concrete. However, this year, it is unlikely that the usual flurry of late winter ordering is taking place.
Events like World of Concrete, held in Las Vegas, Nevada every year, are usually a good opportunity for US rebar traders to book position tons from the foreign mill representatives that also attend the event. But due to the magnitude of the market fallout from last year to this one, booking activity is unlikely to perk up much in the coming days.
Still, WOC will provide the usual chance for at least some bookings to take place, albeit probably at prices that are close to half those at which orders were booked a year ago. This year should stand in particularly sharp contrast to last year's WOC meeting, since last year's event was held amidst a pricing uptrend. This year, however, the price momentum is clearly down as most markets are still very cautious and in "wait-and-see mode."
As things stand now, Turkish rebar mills' recent attempted price increase for the US has gone nowhere, and offering prices from traders have retreated back to their previous levels. Most import rebar offers to the US from Turkey currently range from approximately $23.50 cwt. to $24.50 cwt. ($518 /mt to $540 /mt or $470 /nt to $490 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports. This range reflects a decrease of approximately $1.00 cwt. ($22 /mt or $20 /nt) from last week.
And to the Mexican mills' chagrin, their attempted price hike did not go through either. Rebar offers to the US from Mexico have also backslid by $1.00 cwt. since last week, with most offers now ranging from about $24.50 cwt. to $25.50 cwt. ($540 /mt to $562 /mt or $490 /nt to $510 /nt) loaded truck in Houston.
Going forward, the hoped-for pickup in demand does not seem to be in sight. Additionally, both US and Turkish scrap prices are trending down again due to the weak finished product demand. As a result, the pricing trend for import and domestic rebar offers in the US has shifted from neutral to slightly down.
Most domestic rebars continue to be offered from approximately $27.00 cwt. to $27.50 cwt. ($595 /mt to $606 /mt or $540 /nt to $550 /nt) FOB mill, aside from some bargain deals for large tonnage that are booked at slightly under this range. But again, the pricing outlook going forward is not too rosy, given the weak end-demand and the down-trending scrap prices. Depending on how much of a decrease that US shredded scrap prices register in February, Nucor and other domestic mills may have to officially lower their numbers by another notch.