Although the US domestic rebar market is still “anxiously awaiting” the results of the Section 232 investigation, the market is showing mixed trends ahead of the results. Some rebar mills are quietly raising prices in certain regions, including CMC’s $1.25 cwt. ($25/nt or $28/mt) increase at its Arizona mill, and Gerdau’s $1.00 cwt. ($20/nt or $22/mt) increase at its Texas facility. But sources tell SteelOrbis that demand is lagging in other US regions, including pockets of the South and West Coast, giving rebar buyers leverage to negotiate deals.
Meanwhile, most US mills in the Midwest and elsewhere are “holding tight” to spot prices, sources say, leaving the general US domestic rebar spot range level at $30.75-$32.25 cwt. ($615-$645/nt or $678-$711/mt) ex-mill, with certain large distributors still able to negotiate downward, although that trend is not expected to last. As soon as the Section 232 results are announced, US domestic mills are poised to raise rebar prices almost immediately.
The amount of the projected increase is still up for debate, but sources tell SteelOrbis they are preparing for a “sizeable jump” just in case. Some sources predict the increase will also take into account the increase that was “tabled” last month after the final results in the AD/CVD investigation into rebar from Turkey and Japan. While some sources initially attributed the lack of response as “not wanting to jump the gun” before the Section 232 results were released, others contend that US rebar mills purposely left prices stable in May in order to keep Q2 earnings low enough to support the argument that imports are harming their bottom lines—a key point of evidence in the Section 232 investigation.