US domestic rebar and wire rod prices remained flat again this week on steady though unremarkable demand, though market insiders told SteelOrbis they expect pricing could begin to trend higher as year-end approaches, especially following the recent US presidential election.
“Pricing wise nothing has changed,” said one long steel market insider. “The domestic mills are getting a bit busier with order books filling up.”
Although US demand for finished steel products remains unremarkable, insiders claim the US remains a bright spot among world economies which continue to suffer with high inventories, cheap imports from China and stunted demand for finished steel products.
The incoming Trump administration is expected to further curtail US imports by adding additional tariffs on steel. Market insiders said recently they expect steel prices, especially flat steel, could increase near term as US market sentiment turns more positive following the Trump presidential victory.
In the weekly rebar spot markets, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis is assessed with most transactions discussed at $35.00-37.00 cwt. ($700-740/nt or $772-816/mt), on average $36.00/cwt. ($720/nt or $794/mt), unchanged from seven days ago. Insiders said rebar prices are poised to move higher as fewer and fewer trades at the $35.00/cwt. ($700/nt) level are noted in daily spot markets.
“With the mills getting busier, recent trades at $35/cwt. are pretty much gone,” the insider told SteelOrbis. “Mills have realized that they were selling too cheap to certain players, especially since imports continue to be low.”
While some insiders continue to claim rebar imports remain low because of competitive domestic pricing, reduced geopolitical risks and lower lead times, recent data from SteelOrbis indicates otherwise.
SteelOrbis import rebar data shows for the period from January-August thus far in 2024 rebar imports into the US totaled 1,263,873 mt, while the whole of 2023 saw imports of 729,669 mt. And while 2023 may have been an off year for imports, the average of the previous three years from 2021-2023 remains below the 2024 total thus far at 1,077,694 mt.
In the domestic wire rod markets, market insiders told SteelOrbis that Liberty Steel has announced it will be back in production by March 3, 2025, pending the acceptance of “certain financial packages.” No other details on potential financing were immediately made available.
With Liberty Steel’s production still unavailable, most spot market wire rod transactions were reported this week at $39.00-41.00/cwt. ($780-820/nt or $860-904/mt), or an average of $40.00/cwt. ($800/nt or $882/mt), unchanged from seven days ago.
“I am 50/50 on whether Liberty Steel will come back,” the rebar market insider said. “Everyone is worried about the company going under and leaving a hole in the market.”
Liberty is the largest producer of wire and wire rod in the US at 700,000 tons combined annual capacity, though insiders claim the facility is vastly in need of equipment upgrades to remain profitable, especially since more US steelmaking capacity is slated to become online in 2025.