US domestic merchant bar market gets ready for higher prices

As shredded scrap prices trended upward in March, Nucor increased merchant bar transaction prices for April shipments. Talks are already starting concerning May shipments, and buyers are certain prices will rise yet again. Not only is the cost of raw material increasing; the merchant bar market is strengthening, allowing mills to up their prices continuously. Now that spring has arrived, the already strong non-residential and industrial construction markets are just going to grow stronger as more building projects take place, creating more demand for structurals, channels, and large angles. The housing market is expected to pick up some also, with higher than expected housing start numbers, which will improve demand for smaller sized bars. Service center inventories are at a moderate level for the most part, but have been experiencing shortages for unusual sizes that are not as commonly stocked. Overall, buyers feel that the merchant bar market is doing very well. An increase in price is a good indication of how the market is doing as a whole, though it is now causing buyers to panic, as they rush to make purchases before prices go up again. The two most recent domestic merchant bar increases for March and April shipments have lead to a definite increase in buying activity. Nucor announced in mid-February that it would raise transaction prices for merchant bars by $1.50 cwt. ($33 /mt or $30 /nt) for March shipments. Following that announcement, shredded scrap prices skyrocketed and shot up by $70 /long ton and pushed Nucor to up transaction prices again. For April shipments, Nucor has increased its RMS by $3.50 cwt. ($77 /mt or $70 /nt) to $10.15 cwt. ($224 /mt or $203 /nt) and decreased base prices for merchant bars by $0.75 cwt. ($16.50 /mt or $15 /nt), resulting in a $2.75 cwt. ($61 /mt or $55 /nt) increase in transaction price. For April shipments, merchant bar prices will range from $34.60 cwt. (e.g. 2 x 2 x ¼ angles) to $42.30 cwt. ($763 /mt to $933 /mt or $692 /nt to $846 /nt), depending on size, shape, and thickness. Even though this is a wide range, most domestic merchant bar prices tend towards the lower end of the spectrum. The above prices may not last too long though. With the scrap market growing stronger by the day, market players do believe there is room for another shredded scrap increase followed by another jump in merchant bar prices for May shipments. The domestic pricing trend remains strongly up. Along with domestic prices, import prices are also trending upwards. Turkish mills have been increasing merchant bar prices weekly to keep up with the rising scrap and billet prices. Although Turkish bookings are few and far between, (except for unusual and light sizes that other mills do not produce) mills upped their prices again, this time by $1.00 cwt. ($22 /mt or $20 /nt). Offerings from Turkey now range from $37.00 cwt. to $38.00 cwt. ($816 /mt to $838 /mt or $740 /nt to $760 /nt) FOB loaded-truck, US Gulf ports. Offers from both China and Taiwan have remained the same since our last report; however, the pricing trend is still up. Billet prices are continuing to increase in that part of the world along with the rising cost of scrap, slowly pushing merchant bar prices upward. Merchant bar offers from China are still in the range of $32.50 cwt. to $34.00 cwt. ($717 /mt to $750 /mt or $650 /nt to $680 /nt) FOB loaded-truck, at Gulf and West Coast ports. Taiwanese prices are ranging from $32.00 cwt. to $33.00 cwt. ($705 /mt to $728 /mt or $640 /nt to $660 /nt) FOB loaded-truck, at Gulf and West Coast ports, though they are more dominant on the West Coast.