Over a week after the G20 summit in Germany concluded, there has been no announcement regarding the Section 232 investigation into steel imports. Continued delays in the results has left the US domestic market in a standstill, although sources tell SteelOrbis that uncertainty about the results is growing by the day. “For a while it was a matter of ‘when,’ not ‘if’,” said one source, regarding tariffs and/or quotas. “But now we’re not so sure, which is making this waiting game worse.”
Growing dissent among several export-dependent US industries such as agriculture is reportedly the primary reason for the delayed results, which were expected to be released at the end of June. If the US DOC and Trump administration take these concerns seriously, sources say it could result in minimal tariffs or quotas that could have less of an impact than standard antidumping and countervailing duties. Without high tariffs dealing a “death blow” to imports, US domestic rebar mills would not have the leverage to increase prices—as many in the market expect if the Section 232 results are favorable to US steel producers.
Heightened uncertainty in the market has led to minimal ordering activity, with buyers only booking what they need from US domestic mills and keeping inventory stable. Still, there is no indication the investigation delays are making US mills vulnerable to deals, with spot prices still firmly in the range of $30.75-$32.25 cwt. ($615-$645/nt or $678-$711/mt) ex-mill—unchanged in the last week.