The Turkish billet market may see a price rebound shortly, taking into account the cautiously optimistic mood in the import scrap segment. Although the trend still lacks clarity, some buyers have decided to restock in the domestic market. On the import side, the number of offers is limited as some suppliers are sold out for October. However, a good number of market players have doubts there will be a solid price increase, taking into account the tough situation in the finished steel segment and mills being squeezed by high costs.
A mill in the Iskenderun region has traded around 20,000 mt since the end of last week mainly at $600/mt ex-works, while some of deals, according to sources, were closed at around $590/mt ex-works due to some payment arrangements. This week, the offers in the region have increased to $620-630/mt ex-works, buyers say. In the Marmara region, domestic offers are at $630-635/mt CPT, SteelOrbis has learned. In addition, local producer Kardemir has closed the billet sales which it had opened last week at $610-615/mt ex-works, having traded at least 30,000-35,000 mt. In the Izmir region, one billet supplier is back in the market with offers at $620/mt ex-works, which are still considered high under the current market conditions. Turkey’s export prices for billet are at $620/mt FOB and above, and around 10,000 mt are rumoured to have been sold to Morocco at $610/mt FOB.
In the import segment, pricing remains blurry, mainly due to the limited number of offers. Ex-Donbass material has been offered at $540-550/mt CFR depending on the region, with no deals concluded. Some suppliers claim they are sold out for October and aim on seeing $565/mt CFR and above for November tonnages. One large supplier still assesses the market at $550-555/mt CFR. Along with the limited offers from Russia, information about a 50,000 mt deal from Indonesia has been widely discussed in the market. Sources estimate it may have been closed at a minimum of $570/mt CFR, given the position taken by the trader at $510-520/mt FOB, SteelOrbis has learned.
This week, billet offers from Russian suppliers have been even more limited than previously. Apart from the market uncertainty and closed order books, the announcement of the mobilization in Russia on September 21 has impacted sentiments. Moreover, this will lead to reduced availability of labour, which has already started to be seen at some mills. “Prices for billet have hit the bottom and will start to rebound,” a trader said. For now, the SteelOrbis reference price has remained compared to last week at $505-515/mt FOB Black Sea.