The green shoots of optimism in the Indian billet market have dried up and rare deals have been heard at lower prices with buyers awaiting further cuts amid tariff uncertainties in global trade, SteelOrbis learned from trade and industry circles on Wednesday, March 6.
Sources said that ex-India billet prices were initially quoted in the range of $430-440/mt FOB compared to offers at $440-450/mt FOB a week ago, but deals for relatively small tonnages were reported at even lower levels of $425-430/mt FOB as buyers were resisting higher prices expecting to see decreases around the corner, after the initial rises seen across Asian markets were not sustained.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India billet has settled at $425-430/mt FOB, versus $425-440/mt FOB last week.
According to sources, while government-run mills have continued their months-long absence from exports, an eastern India-based integrated mill has reported a trade for 20,000 mt with a trader for onward sale at a price of around $428/mt FOB.
Another large mill concluded a trade for 15,000 mt at $430/mt FOB for delivery to an undisclosed destination, the sources said.
“The optimism over prices rising was very short-lived. There is no clarity in the market. Economic cues in China, changing tariffs and flows of material across supply chains are big challenges. Buyers are only willing to conclude deals if prices are on the lower side with top-up discounts from sellers,” an Indian source said.
“We will have to read between the lines, the politico-economic statements emanating from China and its possible impact on steel markets, to get a cue for the immediate trend. Out assessment is that ex-India billet prices are at a bottom without any short-term upside potential. So, sellers will either commit small volumes for overseas sales or withdraw offers depending on their respective costing strategies,” the source said.
Meanwhile, the local market has showed a mixed trend with the recent uptrend showing signs of easing with secondary mills having completed the latest round of buying of semis, but the outlook has remained positive and with the loss in price on the lower side.
Billet trade prices have lost INR 200/mt ($2/mt) to INR 42,800/mt ($491/mt) ex-Mumbai but have gained INR 600/mt ($7/mt) to INR 40,150/mt ($460/mt) ex-Raipur in the central region.
$1 = INR 87.20