Although import wire rod offers to the US from China virtually disappeared from the market months ago in anticipation of high CVD rates, the DOC ruling today has not quite re-opened the door to Chinese imports. Only one Chinese mill was slapped with severe duties--81.36 percent for Hebei--all other producers got off with a more moderate 10.30 percent. However, the AD ruling in late August is likely to add further margins in the double-digits according to SteelOrbis sources, so even though the last-heard offers of Chinese rod came in at about $2.00 cwt. ($40/nt or $44/mt) below Turkish offers at the time, the combined CVD and AD margins might not end up competitive with current Turkish offers of $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ($640-$660/nt or $705-$727/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports if Chinese mills start offering again.
As for the ruling’s effect on the US domestic wire rod market, sources say mills are relieved to not have to face additional pressure on spot prices. Already, US domestic wire rod mills are struggling to keep the current spot range of $32.50-$33.50 cwt. ($650-$670/nt or $717-$739/mt) ex-mill afloat, fighting off attempts to negotiate the range downward. Many still think mills might send a “message” to the market via a price increase this month, especially now that they don’t have to worry about Chinese rod re-emerging in the market.