Global View on Billet: Sentiments cautiously positive amid China’s gains

Prices in the major billet markets globally have posted a gradual increase in early January, supported by the gains seen in China and firm raw material prices. But buyers are still cautious, so trading activity has been rather slow.

The ex-China billet reference price has increased by $7.5/mt over the week, to $440-445/mt FOB, with most offers being at the higher end of the range. The main reason behind the rebound in the Chinese steel market was the loose monetary policy officially announced by the Chinese authorities for 2026 and the surge in raw material prices. Raw materials were stronger with iron ore hitting and exceeding the $110/mt mark in the middle of the week and coking coal and coke futures rose by their maximum limits on January 7. Trading of Chinese billet has been limited due to the rise in offer prices, while some Chinese sellers have been focusing on their local market or have already made commitments.

The Indonesian mill has increased its billet offers for April shipment to $450/mt FOB, up by $8-10/mt from that voiced in late December. Some Vietnamese suppliers may offer at $450-455/mt FOB for March shipment.

In Southeast Asia’s import billet market, most buyers have been refusing to accept higher levels, not believing that the uptrend is sustainable. Moreover, buyers that have ex-China orders that should arrive in January do not expect any big delays in shipments even though there have been rumors of longer-than-expected times taken to receive export licenses. In the Philippines, most offers for 5SP billet have been at $460-465/mt CFR, up from $455/mt CFR mainly in late December. It seems that low carbon wire rod and coated steel sheet in coils will be affected the most in Southeast Asia as those businesses were more involved in the non-VAT trade. In Thailand and Indonesia, offers for 3SP 150 mm billet have increased to $460/mt CFR, but some big Chinese traders have even been targeting $470/mt CFR.

In Turkey, local producer Kardemir decreased its billet offer prices by $5/mt from December to $500/mt and $510/mt ex-works depending on the steel grade, and managed to sell close to 50,000 mt. In the other regions of Turkey, mainly in the Iskenderun area, billet offers for end-of-January and February deliveries are at $505-510/mt ex-works and up to $515/mt ex-works for prompt cargoes. Taking into account weak rebar sales and price fluctuations, billet buyers as well as sellers do not seem to be in a rush to enter active negotiations.

Import offers from China have remained high at close to $480/mt CFR for March shipments, with $475/mt CFR reachable from some traders. A 50,000 mt sale was reported at $475/mt CFR Izmir region, while normally Turkish mills would target close at $465/mt CFR and below. China seems rather strong, at least in the short run, sources report. Indonesian billet for April shipment is offered at $450/mt FOB or around $485-487/mt CFR and is of no interest to Turkish buyers. Ex-Malaysia billet has been offered this week for March shipment at $500-505/mt CFR Iskenderun. In addition, last week a 10,000 mt lot was sold from Ukraine at around $490/mt CFR, SteelOrbis has learned. Next week, the supplier is expected to place new offers for the Turkish market.

Considering the holiday period, billet suppliers from Russia and Donbass were not active this week with the indicative price levels remaining at $435-440/mt FOB Black Sea. At the end of December, the offer levels to Turkey stood at $460/mt CFR and, starting from next week, the suppliers will return and, according to the customers, the level of $465/mt CFR is anticipated for cargoes for February shipments.