Global View on Billet: Prices fail to rebound in major markets despite scrap rises

The general sentiments in the global billet market are still far from positive even despite the rises seen in the Turkish scrap market this week. Uncertainty regarding the price trend in China and in Asia overall, as well as weak demand, have prevented billet prices from recording an improvement.

Sentiments in the Asian billet export market have been bearish early this week with futures and spot prices in China coming down despite announced production cuts, since US tariffs against China are in place and protectionism from Asian countries has intensified. On Thursday, offer prices for ex-China and ex-ASEAN billets posted some small increase, though they are almost unchanged from early this week, signaling that the support from the recent announcement from the Two Sessions meetings has not been enough to change the fundamentals in the steel market, at least so far. The ex-China reference billet has settled at $430-440/mt FOB. But most offers have been reported at $440/mt FOB by the end of the week, versus $435/mt FOB early this week. The leading Indonesian mill has been offering billets for May shipment at $445-440/mt FOB during the week, not being aggressive after its previous sales.

The first news from the Two Sessions meetings in China has been rather positive and has supported the mood in the steel market to a certain degree. However, as for steel production cuts for 2025, the target has not been specified and, according to some signals, it may be much smaller than rumored recently. In 2025, to reach the emissions reduction target, Chinese mills in total will have to cut steel output by around 15-20 million mt, which is in line with 2024 and much less than the rumored 50 million mt. The market is awaiting official announcements.

Trading activity in Southeast Asia’s import billet market has remained rather limited especially for Asian origins as prices are relatively stable from the previous week, while buyers are waiting for a further reduction. So, most trading in the import market has been for sanctioned ex-Iran and ex-Russia billets, which are cheaper. Offers for 3SP and 5SP billet to the Philippines have been at $460-466/mt CFR, just slightly down from $460-470/mt CFR seen a week ago. A deal for a sizable lot of ex-Iran 3SP billet was signed in Thailand at $445/mt CFR last week. This level is in line with what was reported last week, but it attracted some interest as it is among the lowest in the market. In addition, the leading mill in Russia’s Far East region has managed to sell over 100,000 mt of billets to Taiwan at $448-449/mt CFR for May-June shipment. The price is just slightly changed from the previous sales to the same destination at $449-450/mt CFR.

In Turkey, domestic billet prices have increased to $505-525/mt ex-works, with the most recent deals closed in the Iskenderun region at $515/mt ex-works. A Marmara region-based mill has been offering billet at $510-515/mt FOB for sale to other regions of Turkey, with no recent deals reported.

In Turkey’s import segment, some interest has been seen in Malaysian billet recently with around 20,000-25,000 mt booked to the Iskenderun region at $486/mt CFR. Another report indicates that a deal for a full cargo has been signed by an Izmir region-based steel producer at $485/mt CFR, but it has not been confirmed by the time of publication. Around mid-February, there was a deal to the same region of Turkey for a full cargo of ex-Malaysia billet at $482/mt CFR. Chinese and Indonesian billet prices have stood at $475/mt CFR this week, down $10/mt from the previous indicative levels. Ukraine is not in the market with new offers, mainly due to the lack of allocation.

Most Russian offers are for April shipment and are at $460/mt CFR particularly to the northern part of Turkey, although a small sale at $455/mt CFR has also been reported this week to the Karabuk region. The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet has settled at $440/mt FOB Black Sea, up by $2.5/mt on average since last week.

At the end of the current week the market has been talking about fresh billet deals from Iran, closed at $415-420/mt FOB by two major regular exporters, for a total tonnage of up to 70,000 mt. Most market players consider the level to be overpriced, especially given the current global market conditions. “I believe the reality is closer to $400-410/mt FOB and higher levels can only be accepted in the GCC which I doubt can absorb 70,000 mt,” a regional market player told SteelOrbis. In addition, some ready cargoes have been available from Bandar Abbas port in Iran at $413/mt FOB, while in Turkey the workable level for Iranian billet in small truckloads is around $430/mt CPT. In Asia, according to local sources, the workable price for ex-Iran billet has been fixed in a deal to Thailand at $445/mt CFR, which is around $410-415/mt FOB Iranian ports, considering the increased freight.

The green shoots of optimism in the Indian billet market have dried up and rare deals have been heard at lower prices with buyers awaiting further cuts amid tariff uncertainties in global trade. Ex-India billet prices were initially quoted in the range of $430-440/mt FOB compared to offers at $440-450/mt FOB a week ago, but deals for relatively small tonnages were reported at even lower levels of $425-430/mt FOB as buyers were resisting higher prices, expecting to see decreases around the corner, after the initial rises seen across Asian markets were not sustained. According to sources, while government-run mills have continued their months-long absence from exports, an eastern India-based integrated mill has reported a trade for 20,000 mt with a trader for onward sale at a price of around $428/mt FOB.