First signals from Europe after holiday

The end of August marks a partial return in European market, while the remaining market players will soon be returning, in early September. The purchasers in Southern Europe have returned to the market; however, the impact of their return does not seem as strong as it was expected so far. Especially in rebar market, the solid rebound expectation in Southern Europe in September has not quite turned real, as the domestic prices regressed in Portugal and the flat trend is still maintained in Spain. As mentioned afore, domestic rebar prices decreased in Portugal. The primary reason was the high volumes that arrived the country in August. Domestic prices are known to have dropped as much as Euro 20/mt and regressed to Euro 460-465/mt levels. For the moment, Italy appears as the most active market in Southern Europe. Although all market players have not returned yet, it is spoken that the market in this country is quite dynamic. The dynamism is expected to increase further in the forthcoming days. In the meantime, we observe price levels in Spain still retaining their end-July levels after the holiday. In the domestic market, 12 mm Aenor certificated rebar price still hovers around Euro 555/mt level; the mills are expecting a pick-up in prices from the beginning of September, while the purchasers are predicting a slight softening. Under these circumstances, it would be best to follow the market for another week in order to have a clear picture of the actual trend. Until recent days, the export price levels of Turkish rebars were in $505-520/mt FOB range, while some sales even going down to $500/mt FOB level have been heard. It should be noted that such sales are for small quantities. However, as domestic market prices commenced increasing this week, we can foresee that finding export prices at such level may not be easy anymore. Nowadays, 12 mm rebar prices in domestic market are at around 910 – 930 YTL/mt including VAT ($530-540/mt excluding VAT) ex-factory levels. In the local UAE market, rebar prices have decreased from AED 2,200/mt to AED 2,150/mt ($585/mt) lately. Latest bookings concluded from Turkey to this market were at $525/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis. Moreover, importers even think that they will conclude purchases at $510-515/mt CFR soon. However, strengthening Turkish market recently seems to be lowering the possibility of export to Europe. Turkish mills are still offering wire rods for export at $480-485/mt FOB level. In Egypt, another exporter, prices are at similar levels. As well known, Chinese wire rod offers put pressure on Turkish mills when competing in the US and Europe. As per the latest reports, there are supplies available from China at $405-410/mt FOB level. In the framework of this situation, European buyers are trying to force Turkish wire rod prices down to $465-470/mt FOB levels. The fact that CIS market is not losing its strong state limits supply from this market in terms of wire rod. This situation is expected to impact September export prices. SteelOrbis has learnt that Kriviy Rih, Ukraine's major steel producer, hiked all of its long products' prices for local sales. (Please click here for the prices). The Euro/$ exchange rate, which is hovering at higher levels, and the strong state of Italian market create an advantageous position to the Ukrainian producer in the Algerian market. With the conclusion of holidays, prices were expected to rise in Mediterranean, Middle East and Black Sea in terms of long products. However, as of now, the overall activity in the market is not as strong as expected although observed that Black Sea, Italy and Turkish local markets appear strong. Under the current circumstances, since the visibility in the market is currently poor, it would be healthier for the market players to wait for the first week of September for a better market comprehension.