Average offer prices for ex-China wire rod have edged up slightly over the past week as expectations for March have been rather positive and more stimulus measures are expected to be announced in China early next month. This has supported ex-ASEAN offers for wire rod, though buyers in Southeast Asia, which previously managed to book import wire rod at very low levels, have been rejecting any rises so far.
Offers for ex-China wire rod from second-tier mills have been heard at $475-490/mt FOB, increasing by $5/mt on average compared to February 13, while reference deal prices have been heard at $470-480/mt, FOB, also up $5/mt compared to February 13. Some offers for non-VAT business are still at the low level of $460/mt FOB, but they are rare.
During the given period, wire rod prices in the Chinese domestic market have seen rises as the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) are approaching (March 4-5). Rebar futures prices have seen continuous rises since February 17, bolstering market sentiments firmly. Rumors about the scale of special bond issuance likely reaching RMB 4.0 trillion ($0.56 trillion) in 2025 have exerted a positive impact on market sentiments. At the same time, demand for wire rod is expected to improve in the traditional peak season of March when the weather is better, which will also positively affect prices.
Offer prices of ex-Indonesia wire rod have been heard at $475/mt FOB, for shipment in April, up $5/mt week on week, while offer prices of ex-Malaysia wire rod have been heard at $490-495/mt FOB.
Southeast Asian buyers have showed weak buying interest in the market after some sales done to the Philippines at $465/mt CFR a week ago. This week, most offers in short positions from traders or for non-VAT wire rod from China have been at $475/mt CFR at the lowest.
As of February 20, rebar futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,358/mt ($468/mt), increasing by RMB 93/mt ($13/mt) or 2.85 percent since February 13, while up 1.24 percent compared to the previous trading day, February 19.
$1 = RMB 7.1712
