Most large CIS-based producers have withdrawal their billet offers, seeing strong signals for a rebound amid recent gains in Turkey and having limited allocations left after sales of three large deals to China before the holidays.
Last week, large CIS-based sellers were seeing billet price levels at around $600-605/mt FOB Black Sea, but at the moment none of them have official offers. “We don’t have offers yet. November [rolling allocation] is sold out. For December, we will wait for next week,” a producer from Ukraine said. Another major mill from Ukraine said that there is no allocation for shipment by the end of this year. Some market sources believe that mills will come back to the market next week, targeting at least $610/mt FOB Black Sea.
Large CIS-based mills are in a positive position as they sold sizable billet lots to China ahead of holidays. Last week, SteelOrbis reported about one lot of 40,000 mt of billet from the Ukrainian mill traded at around $705/mt CFR. But this week two other deals from the Black Sea to China have come to light as having been done last week before buyers left the market due to the holidays. They were from Ukraine and Russia at 600/605$/mt FOB on average for 40,000-50,000 mt each.
As a result, most CIS billet share a positive view for the market in the near future, though there has been no support for higher prices from the buyers’ side so far. The tradable level in Africa is said to be $600/mt FOB as the highest for now.
Higher import scrap prices, fixed in the most recent deals from the US and the Baltic region, have triggered cautious upward moods in the local billet segment in Turkey. The most recent deals for a total of 40,000 mt have reportedly been closed at $625-627/mt ex-works Iskenderun, while the new price ideas across Turkey are heard at $635-645/mt ex-works. In the import segment, most sellers are for now undecided regarding which price to offer, and are aiming to see further developments in the scrap segment. The indicative levels are estimated at $625-635/mt CFR, up by $10-15/mt over the past week. Some customers have been ready to accept a price at $630/mt CFR or slightly above, as some further increase may be seen soon. This means that the tradable level for ex-CIS billet for the Turkish market has improved to $600/mt FOB, being mainly at $580-590/mt FOB or below in the second half of September.
A contract for around 24,000 mt of billet from Russia’s Far East region has been heard closed at $630/mt FOB and a trader has already managed to sell a part of this volume to an end-user in the Philippines at $693/mt CFR, SteelOrbis has learned.
The reference price for ex-CIS billet from the Black Sea has remained at $600-605/mt FOB so far until mills announce new prices.