Another drop in import rebar offers to the US from Turkey this week has still not spurred the booking activity such low prices would seem to garner, as buyers continue to wait for prices to hit bottom. Sales prices in the US for Turkish rebar are now in the range of $22.00-$23.00 cwt. ($440-$460/nt or $485-$507/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, reflecting a drop of around $1.00 cwt. ($20/nt or $22/mt) in the last week. Additionally, positions are still flooding into US ports at a rapidly increasing rate—according to US import license data, just over 135,000 mt of Turkish rebar has arrived in the US this month alone (as of February 18), already beating January’s license data total of 101,552 mt. Traders tell SteelOrbis that the “position price bloodbath” is gaining steam, and it won’t be long until traders “throw margins to the wind” and start offering arrivals for sub-future order prices.
This doesn’t bode well for US domestic rebar prices, sources say. Even with spot prices in the relatively low range of $31.50-$32.50 cwt. ($630-$650/nt or $694-$717/mt) ex-mill, domestic mills’ other advantages over imports—short lead times, small orders sizes, Buy American requirements—might not be enough to keep prices afloat. Unless scrap prices make a dramatic turnaround and demand spikes, sources think another official price decrease is likely.