After weeks of waiting for an announcement in the Section 232 investigation, it now appears there is no solid timeline for the results, following comments by Donald Trump in an interview this week with the Wall Street Journal. Saying the results will “take more time” has not relieved all market uncertainty, sources say, but with indications that the results will be announced “later rather than sooner,” many market players are “off the uncertainty fence” and starting to re-evaluate import offers and inventory levels.
Domestic rebar mills, meanwhile, are reportedly deciding whether to issue a price increase, which many in the market expected in the event the Section 232 investigation resulted in high import tariffs or quotas. Sources tell SteelOrbis that mills opted against raising prices in mid-May following the final results of the AD/CVD investigation against rebar imports from Turkey and Japan because they believed the Section 232 results were imminent. But now that those results are delayed indefinitely, sources believe mills might issue a mild “catching up” price increase, somewhere in the range of $1.00-$1.25 cwt. ($20-$25/nt or $22-$28/mt).
Until anything is announced, spot prices in the US domestic rebar market remain in the range of $30.75-$32.25 cwt. ($615-$645/nt or $678-$711/mt) ex-mill—sources tell SteelOrbis that deals beneath the range are “nearly impossible” to obtain.